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  • Writer's pictureAurimas Navys


Political strategic level
According to politicians and journalists, Volodymyr Zelensky's withdrawal from the European Parliament was like a rock star's performance. Such emotions, ovations and cheers have never been seen before.
In fact, Zelensky gave an excellent performance, a true leader who defends European values and the whole continent. The Ukrainian President declared that 'the Ukraine that wins' should become a member of the European Union and said that the bloc would not be whole unless his country was an integral part of the EU.
Mr Zelensky stressed that his country defends not only European values, but also Europe as a whole, and that the fight against Russia is a common cause. "We are defending ourselves against the most anti-European force in the modern world - we are defending ourselves, we Ukrainians are on the battlefield with you," Zelensky told MEPs. After very important meetings in the UK and France, the Ukrainian President assured the citizens of his country that he would bring home piles of "commitments from people of good will" for more military aid.
This triumph and emotional support for Volodymyr Zelensky is extremely important both for Ukraine and for Europe as a whole. It is a sign of unity, common purpose and common struggle.
However, we are concerned about the somewhat exaggerated jubilation over the quick 'Ukrainian victory', in the face of overly positive reactions and hopes. The state of mind of accepting a desired outcome, goals and dreams as reality can be misleading, which is why it is not only in politics that it is called 'wishful thinking'. There will be victory, but it is still a long way off, and, more to the point, there is an urgent need to stop Russia now. We understand that the Ukrainian troops and all of us need optimism and hope. However, for the soldiers drowning in the blood and mud of Bakhmut, the best optimism is more weapons. They are in very short supply.
In this context, we are encouraged by Mr Zelensky's statement that a great many important details of meetings with national leaders have been left 'behind the scenes'. President Zelensky described his visit to London as fruitful.
"I think we had a very strong meeting. A very important meeting. I see it as a positive thing and, to be specific, I will say: I don't want to say too much in public right now either. I will say that we have worked on strengthening our offensive capabilities. We are talking about armoured vehicles and tanks. Our meeting gave me positive emotions", Zelensky said in a low-key manner.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, in a joint press conference with Mr Zelensky, said that he did not rule out the possibility of supplying Ukraine with Western-standard warplanes. Mr Sunak announced plans to train Ukrainian pilots to fly Western-built combat aircraft.
At the same time, British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said that Britain would not be able to transfer combat aircraft to Ukraine soon, but Volodymyr Zelensky said that some European Union leaders were ready to provide Ukraine with combat aircraft.
One thing is clear: The "grown-up" leaders of the EU countries are secretly discussing and planning how and when to strike a blow across the bloody aggressor's bloody heartland. Such support and, at the same time, ignorance infuriates the Kremlin, which is just the way we like it. We do not like it when the West publicly trumpets how many tanks it will provide to Ukraine and when, and then everyone films them transporting the equipment along European railways. It is not a war, it is a show.
It will be much more entertaining when a group of F-16s suddenly swoops down from who knows where, who knows when, over the crumbling military installations and blows their entire military rubbish to smithereens.
The Russian Embassy in the UK has warned London not to send fighter jets to Ukraine and has threatened retaliation. The terrorist country's embassy made the threat after it emerged that British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had asked his defence minister to look into what planes could be provided to Ukraine.
The Russian embassy said that the supply of warplanes would have "military and political consequences for the European continent and the world". "We would like to remind London that if this scenario were to come true, the UK would be responsible for the casualties of another round of escalation and the military and political consequences for the European continent and the world. Russia will know how to react to any unfriendly actions by Britain", says the embassy of the terrorist country.
We know by heart the Kremlin's fairy tales of a supersonic super-bomb that will wipe out the British Isles in one blow. Then America. Delusions: born to creep, not fly.
Russia's Führer Putler attacked Ukraine "once again", justifying the war over the Donbass. One of the main problems is the Russian language issue. The military actions in Crimea and the Donbass were not started by Russia: "I would like to repeat that again. These hostilities were started by Ukrainian nationalists and their supporters in 2014, when the coup d'état took place. This is where it all started", said Putin, the creator of chaos on the planet.
"The war lasted for eight years to eradicate the people living there, who feel a blood connection to Russia, Russian culture and the Russian language. But how much longer can this be tolerated?" - Russia's douche asked his audience.
We would like to take this opportunity to ask how much longer European countries will tolerate Russian speakers who, after living in a strange home for 12 years, are unable to learn the words 'good day, all the best' and to show basic respect for the country in which they reside?
Putin's puppet Ramzan Kadyrov has called on Putin's army to 'de-Nazify and demilitarise' Poland after Ukraine. "Frankly speaking, I personally have such intentions and <...don...> the fight against Satanism should be continued throughout Europe, and first of all on the territory of Poland". For Kadyrov, the historic region of Silesia, most of which is in Poland, "deserves a special independent status" and needs a referendum "in which Russia can provide organisational assistance".
We must realise that it is not in Kadyrov's mind to think up such messages. These are signals from the Kremlin to us and to our Polish neighbours and to NATO to test the West. A few years ago, the Kremlin's propaganda TV programmes openly called for missiles to be fired at Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Russia is easy to predict. It needs to be read. And react.
In time.
Operational level
Mordor is slowly advancing. The situation at Kreminos, Bakhmut and Vuhledar is complex. While the Drisks are suffering heavy losses of manpower and equipment, the siege rings of Bachmut and Vuhledar are getting tighter. Kyiv believes that Moscow will extend its offensive even further as the anniversary of the 24 February invasion approaches.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia is planning to mobilise 300-500 000 men for an offensive in the east and south in the spring and summer. However poorly we may think of the training and equipment of the Drisks, we must realise that it would take three times as much capacity to drive a million Waltons off Ukrainian soil and burn two thousand tanks.
Yes, the reality is eye-watering, but there is no need to get lost. At the moment, all that needs to be done is to stop the locust infestation.
The optimism and hopefulness of the speeches comes from US retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who is sceptical about Russia's current capacity for a major offensive because of logistical problems. The deeper the incursion into Ukrainian territory, the more difficult it will be to supply the Drisks with food and ammunition. And the Ukrainians will find it easier to destroy the enemy with the new long-range smart bombs.
This is what happened to the Russian troops who invaded deep into Ukrainian territory a year ago, when hundreds of tanks were left without fuel and ammunition, thousands of soldiers were left without ammunition, and the entire army was turned into a gang of hopelessly lost, deranged marauders who were destroyed.
The Czech Republic is rushing to Ukraine's aid. The country has announced that the armoured vehicles of the Ukrainian army will be repaired in the Czech Republic. The Ministry of Defence indicated that the state-owned company VOP CZ had signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Ukroboronprom, the Ukrainian government arms manufacturer, for the repair of the equipment.
The Czechs are one of the main arms suppliers to Kyiv among the NATO allies, supplying Ukraine with armoured personnel carriers, tanks and howitzers.
The US has announced its intention to deploy a HIMARS military training centre in Europe. This HIMARS training programme will be made available to NATO countries that have been authorised to acquire US long-range artillery systems.
The Ukrainian army has been using American high mobility artillery systems on the battlefield for more than half a year and will have immediate access to this service.
We have no doubt that Lithuanian diplomats and politicians have carried more than one plane and are still sleeping in the corridors of the White House, so that Lithuania can be among the first to train and to be able to bring the PATRIOT air defence systems on loan tomorrow.
Putin reiterated that the occupied regions of Ukraine are historically Russian lands and that "the development of Russia's new regions must be carried out in moderation and must not take a whole decade". "The best solutions should certainly be used to develop programmes for the socio-economic development of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions", Putler said.
Here are all the answers to what Moscow will be trying to pluck out of the "stern nose" in the near future, and will fight for it "to the last soldier".
The tactical level
In Ukraine, air raid sirens have been sounding since early morning. Russia has launched three missile carriers, including a submarine, into the Black Sea. The launchers are carrying Kalibr missiles and can fire up to 20 missiles. The night before, the Zaporizhzhya area had been hit by Iranian shells. 5 Russian strategic bombers took to the air and fired cruise missiles at civilian and critical targets in Ukraine. A MiG-31 armed with Kinjal supersonic missiles took off in Belarus.
The Russian army continues to advance on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka axes.
The use of aviation is being actively used to strike Ukrainian positions.
Over the past day, the occupying forces have carried out 52 air and 6 missile strikes, including 2 on the civilian infrastructure of the town of Kramatorsk. Russian terrorists have launched 63 attacks with cruise missile systems, in particular on civilian infrastructure in the Donetsk and Kherson regions.
The FSB forces of the Russian Federation are carrying out filtering measures on the territory of the temporarily occupied Kherson region, checking the personal belongings of the population, with a particular focus on mobile phones.
Over the past day, Ukrainian military aviation has struck 18 times at concentration points of the occupying forces' personnel and military equipment and 4 times at positions of anti-aircraft missile systems.
The Air Defence Forces shot down 3 enemy drones.
Rocket and artillery units struck two enemy checkpoints, 5 concentration points, an ammunition depot and an anti-aircraft defence position.
Photo: aerial view of the shelling of Kramatorsk a week ago. Source - AP Photo, Yevgen Honcharenk
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