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  • Writer's pictureAurimas Navys

UKRAINE - NATO MEMBER. REALITY OR MIRAGE? (2023 05 29)

Geopolitical situation

Andriy Yermak, Head of the Ukrainian Presidential Chancellery, argues that Ukraine's invitation to join NATO could be the key to ending the war. Russia has to accept this fact, "and it will not go anywhere. It will accept it. Because they have changed reality. They are the ones who attacked Ukraine", the politician believes.

Jermak stressed that NATO needs Ukraine because the previous security system in Europe "does not work". "We are not talking about Article 5 until we become NATO members. So these are very real guarantees", Yarmak said.

The North Atlantic Alliance has already agreed that Ukraine will be able to join NATO, but only after the war is over. Meanwhile, Ukraine wants to confirm security guarantees before joining the Alliance.

Ukraine's future in NATO is certain. However, let us be frank: this future and this prospect are very vague. Ukraine's rapid admission is only possible by drawing new 'future borders', by signing a peace treaty with Russia, by temporarily giving up some territories. Continued military action, even after the occupier has been ousted, could make border control very complicated and military conflict could continue for years. This is called a frozen conflict, which is perfectly satisfactory for the Kremlin regime. We are concerned that this situation is, unfortunately, also partly to the satisfaction of today's Western leaders.

For the West, it means relative stability, for the Kremlin it means regime continuity, but for Ukraine it means further war, blood, pain and chaos.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan declares victory in the second round of Turkey's presidential elections. Preliminarily, Erdogan has beaten his rival by just over two million votes (!), which means that the country is still divided in half.

Turkey's dictator, Mr Erdogan, is a unique phenomenon, able to rule the country with a hard fist and to navigate between Moscow, Washington, the EU, NATO and the Asian community. Tayyip's influence has grown in recent years, spitting in the face of NATO, the US, going apple-to-apple with the devil, making S-400 deals, before shooting down a Russian Su-24 storm aircraft.

Significant developments

Air raid sirens sounded in Ukraine overnight. Missiles and drones attacked Kherson, Mykolaiv, Kirovograd, Cherkasy, Poltava, Sumy, Chernigov, Kyiv and Donetsk regions. In the capital alone, 40 occupation sites were reportedly shot down. No casualties in Kyiv.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikoff stated that all British long-range Storm Shadow strikes were highly effective. All Storm Shadow launches hit their targets 100% of the time. The Russian Federation did not deflect a single strike. The advantage of the Storm Shadow's high precision is that the system can "fool" the enemy's air defences. The missile is protected from the effects of various enemy electronic jamming systems.

The UK's long-range cruise missiles, with a range of at least 250 km, are a major headache for the Russian General Staff, with major military equipment and manpower bases an average of 120 km from the front line.

"The Wagner terrorists are leaving Bakhmut smashed and destroyed, and Russian regular forces are moving in to take their place, according to Serhiy Cherevaty, a spokesman for the eastern branch of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russians are regrouping at Bakhmut, supporting the defence lines with artillery fire and air strikes.

The occupation "authorities" are reportedly fleeing the Kherson area and trying to bypass the Crimean bridge. The collaborators and occupiers are believed to be avoiding the Crimean Bridge for fear of Ukrainian attacks.

Some sources estimate that the Ukrainian counter-attack has already begun. A positive scenario for a counter-offensive is the liberation of some territories. The negative scenario is the interception of an offensive by the Russian army.

Briefly

The Ukrainian government has warned Iran that the supply of Shahed drones to Russia will have "consequences". "Tehran has become Moscow's main ally in this war, deliberately supplying it with weapons for attacks on civilian cities," Mikhail Podoliak, an adviser to the head of the Ukrainian president's office, said on Twitter. "Today I would like to remind official Tehran of the basic laws of life, in particular the law of the boomerang. Do not be fooled by the illusion of geographical distance or the misunderstanding of Ukraine's priorities today. Once released, the "Shahed" will one day find its way to its maker," Podoliak warned.

According to Podoliak, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed that his government impose sanctions on Iran for 50 years.

Russia is becoming a satellite of China and its economy is dependent on Beijing. This is the assessment of French President Emmanuel Macron. However, even sources close to the Kremlin say that Russia is destined to become a colony of Chinese resources. Trade with China is forecast to reach a new record of USD 200 billion this year, while other statistics show that Russia will export around 26% of its goods to China. This is twice as much as before the war in Ukraine, when Russia exported only 13% of its goods. Russia will be considered a vassal state when imports and exports to and from China reach 50%.

In the near future, it seems likely that the Chinese dragon will quietly devour Russia, with all its inexhaustible resources, and use it as a tool of terror against the West, in the same way as Moscow is now using Minsk.

Interesting times are ahead. It will not be quiet.

Lithuania

Anxiety and confusion at the top of the government.

With talk of possible early elections and the resignation of the government, there are more and more calls not to rock the ship of state and to get on with the job in hand. Interestingly, it is not so much the opposition but the old-timers who are suggesting that there should be no confusion about premature elections and the resignation of the government. The scandal that has caused the crisis is not a parliamentary or governmental one, but a local government one.
It is clear that the left is clapping its hands and realising that the red electoral carpet is being rolled out for them by doing nothing and by simply not being part of this kerfuffle. However, the ruling party's idea of pulling up stakes, of doing a roulette, of donning the mantle of the victim of a wrongful assault and getting back on the white horse at election time is unlikely to work.

Our advice is to listen less to the various influencers and political technologists, not to read or respond to Facebook comments, not to waste energy and precious time on them, and to think about the future of the country in geopolitical, not virtual, reality.

History will sort everything out.

Pictured here is a beautiful psyops product of the Ukrainian General Staff.

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