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  • Writer's pictureAurimas Navys

GENERAL'S OPTIMISTIC PREDICTION: THE WAR COULD END THIS YEAR (12/02/2023)

Political strategic level
Ukraine will become a member of the EU in two years' time and NATO after victory, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced. "Today there are pessimists among world leaders who believe that Ukraine needs 10 years (to achieve) EU membership. But they mostly do not know us and sometimes they are even afraid of our spirit, our energy. So we can see that we can become EU members in two years. We need security guarantees", says Zelensky.
The big question is which of them needs Ukraine's NATO and EU membership more. Does Ukraine need EU and NATO guarantees or does the EU and NATO need Ukraine as a shield against Russia? Who is ready to fight the charmed hordes of terrorist Russia today, and prove it with blood: the Ukrainians or the quiet Belgians, Dutch, Germans and the not-so-quiet French? You know the answer.
According to US General Ben Hodges, Russia will continue to push into Ukraine, but will not be able to carry out a full-scale military operation. At best, it may be a military operation of limited success. Ukraine has sufficient forces to stop the Russians, and this will undoubtedly cost a lot of casualties. Although the supply of military munitions - tanks, aircraft, ammunition - has been delayed, it is not too late. It is not too late to supply weapons.
According to the General, the West should no longer fear an escalation over the sending of F-16 fighter jets, as the same threats were heard from Moscow over the sending of Stingers. Nothing happened. It will not happen now with the provision of long-range missiles, drones and fighter jets. The Ukrainians will be able to destroy Russian military airfields, planes, bases, missile launchers and everything else.
The General has no doubt that Ukraine, supported as it is today, will win the war. But it could take three or even five years and cost thousands of innocent lives. The sooner the West provides Ukraine with all the weapons it needs, the sooner Ukraine will drive the Russian army out of its territory. The course of the war "is therefore not up to Russia, not up to Ukraine, but up to us", Ben Hodges told DW. According to the general, we need to think less, to discuss how long the training will take, how it will have to be implemented, how the logistics will be carried out, but just do it. Today.
Western support for Ukraine is not a fight for that country, but a fight for the whole of Western civilisation and the world order. If Ukraine loses, the other aggressors in the world will do the same, and the world will sink into chaos. It is therefore necessary to support Ukraine, realising that this is, above all, a battle for Western civilisation.
According to Hodges, the most pessimistic scenario for the war would be if the West tired of supporting Ukraine and the war was lost, while the most optimistic scenario would be that Crimea could be liberated in the summer of this year.
We, and probably every one of you, share General Hodges' thoughts. This shows that there are military strategists who know how to finish off Russia quickly and save Ukraine and the West. The biggest problem is the out-of-place, out-of-time political crickets, the leaches, the chickens, for whom the political arena is not like appearing on stage next to Michael Jackson or Raji in a spectacular dress or a waistcoat. These politicians are the product of a revolution of the masses that does not understand the laws of civilisation. Masses who do not understand anything, who do not know, who do not think ahead, who are afraid of everything, who panic, who doubt everything. For the politician of the masses, it is more important to look good in a selfie with Zelensky than to plan support for Ukraine and concrete figures and actions on the time axis.
With gas prices falling in Europe, "there is no longer any fear of an energy crisis", says Pierre Andurand, founder of Andurand Capital, which has earned a reputation for correctly predicting energy market developments, to the Financial Times. Russia's energy gamble has failed because gas prices in Europe have fallen and will remain low.
"I think this was Putin's biggest mistake and miscalculation about who holds all the levers. Equally, he miscalculated and did not think that Ukraine would stand up and the West would unite. Russia has lost its biggest customer once and for all, and it will take at least a decade to build enough pipelines to Asia. <...> Now that Europe has become accustomed to living without Russian gas, why should it ever go back?", asks Andurand.
We stand up and applaud, because it is oil, gas and other energy resources that accounted for about half of the revenues of the terrorist Russian budget, and which inspired the Kremlin's liquidators to wage war against Ukraine and the West.
Hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated across France yesterday, pressing the government on its pension reform plans to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64. The strike unions hope to encourage at least one million people to take to the streets.
Initial estimates suggest that the number of protesters in Paris on Tuesday has increased by around 20% since the last protest, Le Figaro newspaper reported. Clashes with the police have already taken place and one car was burnt yesterday.
Protests in France are rarely without direct Russian intervention. During the bloody "Yellow Vests" riots, Moscow was on the rampage in the French information space. There were 600 active Russian-controlled Twitter accounts, 12 Instagram accounts with 76 000 followers each, and RT's coverage reached over 23 million views.
For example, a video of a policeman "beating the French" was viewed 5.7 million times, even though the video was made in Armenia. Donbass hit squads were sent to Paris to incite unrest. Will the French finally realise who they are dealing with? It is to be hoped that the special services are already on the lookout for 'vassies, collies and serojis' and that the activities of agents of Kremlin influence in public space are being closely monitored.
By the way, the French did not close RT France until 21 January 2023.
Operational level
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence claims that Russia does not currently have the resources to launch a full-scale offensive and is therefore trying to find weaknesses in Ukraine's defences.
Andriy Chernyak, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, believes that "the Russian leadership does not have sufficient resources for a full-scale offensive. The main objective of the Russian forces remains to achieve at least some tactical success in Eastern Ukraine."
According to Chernyak, Russia lacks high-precision missiles. The aggressor has exhausted 80% of its stockpiles and is now trying to resume production, but so far without success.
The Russian Federation will not stop the massive strikes. Terror will continue at the expense of the remaining reserves.
The British Ministry of Defence predicts that the Russians will continue their offensive in spite of the deteriorating weather conditions, which will make off-road movement very difficult in early spring.
According to Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO's military committee, the invaders will attempt a massive offensive in the spring because Russia's strategic objectives in Ukraine have not changed. However, it is difficult for the aggressor country because, according to the Pentagon, Russia has lost half of its tanks in Ukraine.
Moscow's main trump card is human resources. But despite the losses, the Russian army is learning from the failures of the war in Ukraine.
Yes, and this is a major alarm bell for the West. A million soldiers who have fought in a real war, who have tasted blood and gunpowder, are a huge threat. These are not just a bunch of statistical youngsters, pampered in their warm barracks, shooting at paper targets, but a horde of real killers and marauders. The only force that can stop these hordes is the trained and experienced Ukrainian army.
John Kirby, coordinator of the US National Security Council, says that Putin is taking advantage of the current winter months to resupply, rearm, re-equip and re-personnel his forces, and to resume offensive operations in the spring. As a result, in recent weeks the United States and other allies and partners have increased shipments of military aid to Ukraine, which include more sophisticated combat capabilities for fighting in open terrain. John Kirby has warned that Russia could launch an offensive in March-May.
It is said that on 20 February. Joe Biden will announce a new military aid package for Ukraine during a visit to Poland on February. There were also rumours in the media about an alleged planned meeting between Mr Biden and Mr Zelensky, but the Ukrainian President stated that he had not been invited (one could try to invite him).
Following the German decision to send tanks, US President Joe Biden announced the transfer of upgraded Abrams. However, due to complex logistics and limited equipment stocks, according to various estimates, the delivery will be delayed by up to several months.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stresses that the Ukrainian Armed Forces need up to 500 tanks to move forward actively.
The West continues to actively negotiate the transfer of combat aircraft to Ukraine. Paris has cautiously acknowledged that French fighter jets are an option.
Tactical level
The Russians continue to attack in the direction of Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlovsk.
Over the past day, the occupiers have launched 12 missile strikes, including 3 on Kharkiv's civilian infrastructure, and 32 air strikes, including 6 using Shahed-136 unmanned aerial vehicles. 4 aircraft were shot down. Russian terrorists carried out more than 90 shelling attacks with rocket-assisted salvo fire systems.
More than 20 settlements were affected.
The occupiers continue to loot, maraud and plunder the property of the inhabitants of the occupied territories. Russian soldiers are going door-to-door, checking residents for permits and home ownership documents. Abandoned houses are sealed and notices are posted stating that the premises have passed into the ownership of the so-called occupying "local administration".
Over the past day, Ukrainian military aviation has carried out 19 strikes on occupation sites, as well as 2 strikes on the positions of anti-aircraft missile complexes.
Ukrainian defenders shoot down a Sukhoi Su-25. Rocket troops and artillery units struck 14 enemy live-fire areas and anti-aircraft missile complex positions.
Photo: Bakhmut loves Ukraine (source: https://apnews.com)
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