Geopolitical situation
Ukraine's counter-attack is on the radar of the world and Lithuania. Ukrainian intelligence reports that the Kremlin, aware of its defeat in the geopolitical context, is looking for someone to blame for Russia's defeat. Shoigu, Gerasimov, and Prigozhin are aware that Russia has already lost geopolitically and strategically. Putin has failed to achieve any of the objectives of the 'special operation': to take Kyiv within three days, to take the Donbas by 31 March, and to take Bakhmut by 9 May.
"From the myth of the superpower, from the myth of the 'second world army', the whole world has seen the reality of a backward country, an economy, and an army of marauders. And today's public conflicts between them show the fear of taking responsibility for the inevitable defeat because none of this trio wants to be responsible", said Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence's Main Intelligence Directorate.
Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, says it is possible to end the war by the end of this year. At the same time, the official reflects that it is unnecessary to predict when the counter-offensive will start: it could happen in a matter of days, weeks, or months. "Not sooner or later, but exactly on time", says Mr. Danilov.
There will be a lot of misleading and frightening information in the public domain lately, which will make you shudder at its content. But this is simply part of the information war. It is important for all of us to realize that victory over Moscow will not be as easy as many people think. Even after the marauding gangs of madmen have been driven out of Ukraine, the Kremlin will not give up. The exhausting shelling of Ukraine and the economic and political terror may continue. It all depends on what action the Kremlin itself takes. And there are not many moves for Moscow.
One of them is to declare martial law, to declare general mobilization, to turn the entire economy of the country into a machine for the production of the war industry, and to litter the frontline with hundreds of thousands of corpses. This will keep the Putin junta in place, but not for long. The Kremlin's bloviators, however blunt they may be, know how to calculate and understand that this year, and especially next year, the growing EU and US war industry will overwhelm Ukraine with weapons. Putler's defeat will be a defeat, but it will be terribly embarrassing.
The other option is an immediate rocking of the Kremlin, replacing Putin with the good Putin, sitting down at the negotiating table, trying to 'squeeze out' a special status for the seized territories, lifting sanctions, signing some kind of a peace agreement, with the sole purpose of once again fucking over the West and setting the stage for a new war. This is the option Moscow's strategists think the Kremlin should prefer.
The third option is a nuclear confrontation, spitting on the warnings of the world community, including China, and the use of nuclear weapons to stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive. This option needs to be named, but it is unlikely.
Putin's pants are a sign that he has been peeing in his pants when he said that Russia has never abandoned the 'diplomatic track' in a telephone conversation with Cyril Ramaphosa, President of the Russian Federation. Mr. Putin reiterated his offer to provide African countries with free Russian grain and fertilizer.
Helping starving children in the Volga region, Germany and Africa is a Kremlin oil classic. Disrupting the lives of hundreds of millions of people, killing thousands, and playing the role of merciful Samaritans in the face of this. Typical 'pony girls' of criminal scoundrels.
"Bank of America strategists say that up to USD 1 trillion worth of corporate debts could be defaulted on as a result of the recession and the credit crunch. The three-year default rate of US companies has risen to around 15%. According to experts, there is no need to worry, as a mild or short recession is more likely than a full-blown recession in the near future. However, markets are increasingly concerned about the prospect of a future recession, with the New York Fed's US recession probability index projecting a 68% chance of a recession by April 2024.
Meanwhile, as the world's economic giants look for measures to avoid a recession, the propaganda mouthpieces of the country that caused it, the Kremlin, officially declared today that inflation in Russia is zero.
Significant developments
Ukrainian forces struck Russian manpower and equipment in five directions. The Russian Ministry of Defence acknowledged a "tactical" retreat near Bakhmut. The Ukrainians already control the flanks where the occupiers attempted to encircle the defenders entrenched in Bakhmut a month ago. The enemy has been pushed back a few kilometers to the east and the Chasiv Yar - Bakhmut road has been cleared.
We draw your attention to the statement by Anna Malyar, Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine, in which she urges Ukrainians not to "under any circumstances" take the hysterical statements of Prigozhin and other representatives of the occupying forces at face value. "Regardless of the enemy's public statements, citizens should always be prepared for treacherous scenarios of Russian actions".
This is absolutely true. We therefore propose not to question, not to investigate and not to react in any way to Prigozhin's ranting, which is complete disinformation and is intended to mislead.
Yesterday, almost 200 Russian marauders and five field ammunition depots were destroyed in the fighting in Bakhmut. In total, 750 occupiers were liquidated during the battles.
The Russians are hastily forming new units to reinforce the occupation troops fighting against Ukraine. A separate motorized brigade has been formed in the Stavropol Territory, at the expense of the Southern Military District, to reinforce the occupation forces operating on Ukrainian territory.
Briefly
Police in St Petersburg set up a new anti-drone unit to detect unmanned aerial vehicles following a suspected drone attack on the Kremlin. The unit became operational on 9 May during the Victory Day celebrations. The "anti-drone" unit will be staffed by officers armed with sniper rifles and shotguns. Teams trained to neutralize UAVs and mobile patrols will work together to apprehend persons suspected of using UAVs.
Complete nonsense, designed to intimidate the local population, to maintain constant tension, to create the possibility of a state of emergency. It is half past six for some in the Kremlin.
The United Nations reportedly has no contingency plan in case Russia pulls out of the agreement that allows Ukraine to export grain to international markets and has made it easier for Moscow to export grain and fertilizer.
"There is no plan B in the Black Sea," said UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric. "There is the Black Sea. We cannot move the sea. We cannot move the Bosphorus," the official said. According to US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield, "Russia is an excellent exporter. It exports grain and fertilizers at the same level, if not more than it did before the full invasion. Russia's threats are about money and power. The more Russia interferes with Ukraine's exports, the higher the prices, and because Russia's exports are doing well, it gets more revenue", she said.
When the UN removes terrorist Russia from its membership, there will be no need to delude ourselves about moving the Black Sea.
Egypt spat on US warnings and allowed Russian warplanes to use its airspace. At least 7 Russian military flights to and from Syria via Egyptian airspace have taken place in two weeks, despite the fact that the US asked Cairo to close it in March.
Cairo has forgotten who supports the country's army in ensuring the stability of the state. Without US support, the country would probably drown in a sea of revolts, riots, and military coups, like Syria or Sudan.
Lithuania
The uproar over the writer Viktoras Šenderovičius, who has been smeared with some red purée. There is no question of whether or not it should have been done - of course, it should not have been. But, above all, it was not necessary to allow a figure who supports the narrative of imperialist Russia and calls Ukrainians Nazis into Lithuania. Something is wrong in our councils, which issue visas to those who cause confusion and stir up public opinion by coming from Russia.
This is a perilous moment, showing how easily a spark can be ignited in Lithuania by staging a staged provocation using violence.
We must prevent the Kremlin's special services from carrying out their planned operations through the Russian dog-abscesses, realizing that it is not necessary to send intelligence agents to Lithuania to cause confusion.
It is enough to delegate tasks to separate groups, unaware of the final scenario, working in some countries like the United Arab Emirates or Spain.
Today's review has gone beyond the 700 000 words we have written in just over a year. That's almost eight 300-page books. Yes, yes, eight books. And you have read them all. Thank you, dear ones, for your patience and support.
Photo shows a Ukrainian tank driving on a road near Bakhmut (source apnews.com)
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