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  • Writer's pictureAurimas Navys


Political strategic level
The terrorist Russian Federation recognized that due to the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, a serious crisis awaits the economy of the country's aggressor. In the opinion of Russian analysts, the most favorable option is activity. This is possible if the global growth rate remains at 3% and energy prices remain relatively high. In this case, Russia's GDP will begin to grow in 2023, but will still not reach 2% by the end of the year.
The most pessimistic scenario predicts a crisis if the world economy experienced a structural downturn and if sanctions were lifted slowly. According to analysts, this scenario means that the economy will contract by more than 6 percent. In addition, options such as the "second year 2010" and a crisis without isolation are also possible.
After Russia invaded Ukraine, the agency S&P lowered Russia's credit rating from BB+ to CCC-. On March 8, 2022, S&P downgraded the credit ratings of 52 Russian companies. 27 June 2022 Russia for the first time in a century did not fulfill the debt obligations of its state, because it offered to pay bondholders not in dollars, but in rubles.
It seems to us that Russian analysts missed one important factor - remote blows with missiles and drones to their military bases, and military - industrial complexes on the territory of Russia. The negative 6% of GDP will then look like the most optimistic scenario it could be.
British politicians have launched an initiative to create a special tribunal to investigate Russia's "crime of aggression" in Ukraine. According to British politicians, the tribunal should be set up in such a way that it can also cover Belarus and complement the investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC) into Russia's crimes in Ukraine. The proposal was backed by opposition leader Keir Starmer and former Conservative Party leader, MP Iain Duncan Smith, British newspaper The Observer reported.
He said that in his interactions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, while still in office, he realized that "the only thing Putin understands is strength." "One of our strengths is to say it's an international crime. Especially a crime of aggression, Brown added.
The more former and current politicians and public leaders identify that the only language that the Führer and war criminal Putin understand is by force, the sooner the point will be made in this senseless massacre.
Sweden is confident that Turkey will accept its request to join NATO, but will not meet all the conditions for support raised by Ankara, the Swedish prime minister said on Sunday. "Turkey confirms that we have done what we have said that we will do, but it also says that they want things that we cannot or do not want to give them," Ulf Kristersson said at a conference of the Defense Analytical Center in Sweden.
Kristersson stated that the demands that Sweden could not or did not want to fulfill do not fall within the scope of the tripartite memorandum. Ankara expressed disappointment over a decision by Sweden's supreme court late last year to suspend a request for the extradition of a journalist suspected of having ties to Islamic scholar Fetullah Gulen, whom Turkey accuses of attempting a coup.
It's all just smoke. Turkey is strengthening its negotiating position with the U.S., from which it is asking for new fighter jets and full support in the fight against Kurdish rebels in Syria. The Turkish dictator had previously instructed Putler to either pull the driskis from the so-called 30 km buffer zone off the Turkish border on the Syrian side, or help the Turks in the fight against the Turks. The real reason for the "war with kurdish terrorists" is resources in the buffer zone. The two dictators, in this sense, are no different. Only Erdogan Vovka is not afraid, and here you will not say this about Vovka.
On Sunday, during the ceremony commemorating the national holiday of the Bosnian Serb Autonomous Republic, Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik awarded Russian President Vladimir Putin in absentia. Fürer V. Putin was awarded the medal for his "special patriotic care and love for the Republika Srpska" and for his merits in developing and strengthening cooperation and political relations between the "friendly states of the Republika Srpska and the Russian Federation", the event's hosts reported.
Dodik, the region's separatist president, who has long prioritized ties with Russia over the West, praised Putin for his credible support for the Republika Sectarian Republic and said he would present him with a medal at their next meeting. "Because of Vladimir Putin's position and the strength of the Russian Federation, the voice and position of the Republika Srpska were heard and respected," he said.
Last month, Russia condemned the EU for granting Bosnia the status of a candidate for the bloc. Earlier, she warned that she would see Bosnia's moves to join NATO as a "hostile act."
Hungary - Serbia - Russia - Iran - Taliban.
Operational level
There is increasing talk of supplying NATO's advanced heavy war machinery to Ukraine. Germany has already not ruled out the possibility that in the future the Ukrainian military forces will be supplied with Leopard tanks - said Robert Habeck, Germany's minister of economy. His comments came two days after Germany said it wanted to deliver about 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine by the end of March, and Habeck said the decision was good and long overdue.
Italy is also rushing to the ball, which is considering supplying Ukraine with SAMP/T air defense systems. Ukraine's presidential office said Kyjiv has "all the necessary guarantees" from Italy regarding weapons. The Italian Senate voted by a large majority to approve the government's resolution on extending military assistance to Ukraine until the end of 2023. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said Rome would consider supplying Ukraine with air defense systems.
The SAMP/T is an anti-missile system designed to protect the battlefield and sensitive tactical areas (e.g. airports and seaports) from aerial threats, including cruise missiles, manned and unmanned aerial vehicles, and tactical ballistic missiles. Depending on the anti-aircraft missiles, the SAMP/T can kill targets at a distance of 30 or 120 kilometers.
Mikhail Podoliak, an adviser to the head of Ukraine's presidential office, says that the liberation of Crimea has already begun and it is only a matter of time before the peninsula will be under the full control of Ukraine, and the occupiers will begin to flee the peninsula. "We don't need our kids, who are sitting in bomb hideouts today, to pay a different price after 3-5 years. So that they then die for the right of the state to exist. That is why today we signed such a 'contract' - either today we will reach the end and our children will live in a cool country, or we will have to look for another place to live, because then there will be no Ukraine," he added.
Meanwhile, Vadim Skibitsky, a representative of the Supreme Intelligence Board of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, confirmed that in the spring and summer of 2023, Russia plans to mobilize 300-500 thousand people. troops for offensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine. According to A. Skibicki, there is talk of a Russian offensive in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, as well as, possibly, in Zaporizhia. At the same time, in the Kherson region and in Crimea, the Russian army will adhere to defense positions.
Increased activity is observed on the territory of Belarus, to which in the last few days the military equipment of the Soviet Union of the 7-8th decade of the last century, taken from long-term storage, is transported by rail. In the last two days, Belarussian guerrillas report noticing about 1,500 additional driskis arriving. Lukashenko's dogs smashed a joint force group of about 100,000 soldiers, which Pultler allegedly ordered to gather for the chairman of the collective farm of cow inseminators. It is unlikely that these figures have a basis in reality. However, the exercises of the Russian and Belarusian Air Forces scheduled for mid-January are an alarm signal.
In recent weeks, Russia has strengthened its defensive fortifications in the Zaporizhia region and on the southwestern side of Donetsk oblast, apparently hoping for a Ukrainian offensive right here. A successful blow in the direction of Melitopol, while at the same time occupying the Kinbury Peninsula and threatening to move towards the Crimea, would close the land route to the peninsula and the Drisky horde would fall into an extremely deplorable position. The maurodiers commanders in Surovikin's muzzles understand this perfectly, unfortunately.
Tactical level
An exchange of prisoners took place: 50 defenders of Ukraine return home. 33 officers and 17 ordinary and sergeants were returned from the persons taken captive at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, as well as the defenders of Mariupol.
The Kremlin's propaganda machine has surpassed the world war II-era mediator's lies for the first time. After Moscow claimed that 600 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in the impact, the Reuters team visited two college dormitories, where Moscow said Ukrainian personnel were temporarily accommodated and targeted in revenge for the New Year's Ukrainian gift in Makijivka, when many Russian soldiers were killed and which sparked outrage in Russia.
However, not a single dormitory in the eastern city of Kramatorsk looked directly affected or severely damaged. There were no obvious signs that soldiers lived there, and no traces of flesh or blood.
Heavy battles take place in the direction of Bachmut - Soledar. Soldiers on the ground report that the units of the 46th Ukrainian Assault Paratrooper Brigade rushed in a counter-offensive to reject the Russian marauders east of Soledar. In addition, the diversionary group of the 22nd Russian Specnaz Brigade was discovered in the raid and all to one destroyed. In total, in the last two days of endless battles, Russia has lost up to 1000 of its so-called soldiers who have died and were wounded.
In the northeast, battles are underway along the P-66 highway at Kremina. Last night, the Russians had small pushes in the direction of the west and were preparing for an offensive from Sviatove to the southwest and west.
In the south, it was relatively calm - thanks to the coordinated actions of special operations forces and partisans, with artillery strikes, the Ukrainians destroyed the places of accumulation of shabbies, ammunition depots and defensive fortifications.
Photo: the result of a direct hit on the Russian BMP-3 with 155 mm artillery.
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