Political strategic level
"A dictator seeking to rebuild an empire will never defeat a free people", tweeted US President Joe Biden. "Today I repeat what I said a year ago when Russia invaded Ukraine. A dictator seeking to rebuild an empire will never overcome the people's love of freedom. Cruelty will never overcome the freedom of free people. And Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never", Joe declares.
The victory was also announced on the anniversary by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who says that Ukraine already has "everything" to defeat the aggressor. He is convinced that Ukraine is capable of winning the Russo-Ukrainian war as early as 2023, regardless of the aggressor's desire to achieve any results on the battlefield.
"If we all fulfil our tasks, victory awaits us. I am convinced that there will be victory. I really want it this year. We have everything - motivation, confidence, friends, diplomacy. We are united against this invasion," the President said.
On the anniversary of the war, there are many inspiring speeches about victory also in Lithuania. Predictions are that a united West will strike and crush Russia. By the hands of Ukraine, I say.
As the saying goes, God forbid that this should happen.
However. For us, the picture is somewhat different. And if we manage to hold the existing front lines in the coming months and to launch at least one crushing attack in the summer and to liberate, for example, Kherson, that will be very good.
This is not pessimism based on anything, it is simple calculation. We do not assess the prospect of the war on the basis of emotions, wishes or hopes, but on the basis of the current situation on the front line and the potential of the warring sides. On the one hand, we can say that Russia is completely incapable of fighting, because it is pushing very hard, but on the other hand, we can see the ability of the Russians to withstand a continuous supply of Western weapons, albeit not exactly modern ones.
It is the vague notion of the quantity of arms supplies that is misleading many. Everyone expects the West to overwhelm Ukraine, or perhaps it has already done so, with hundreds of tanks, thousands of armoured personnel carriers and countless missiles, and these weapons will supposedly crush the enemy in a few weeks. However, those secret masses of crushing weapons simply do not yet exist in Ukraine. Yes, the US has enough tanks, but the Abrams are more suited to desert warfare, and there are up to two and a half thousand Leopards throughout Europe. Russia had about 17 000 tanks and armoured vehicles before the war. Imagine 4 000 units destroyed and a second one not running. Still, the potential for Russian tanks and armoured vehicles remains quite high.
Of course, Russia is throwing old bastards into battle, as well as alcoholics, the unemployed, tramps and other scum, but it is doing so deliberately, by writing off the problematic - the criminal, vagabond - section of society, which is the easiest to motivate by the spoils of war. The Kremlin lost the first phase of the war ignominiously, and the fiasco of the first few weeks and the crushing of the Kyiv battle were utterly miserable, but they did not go away. Any other horde of Walmachi would have been permanently relegated to their troglodyte caves after such a hail of devastating blows at Kyjiv, Lyman, Izum, and Kherson. Unfortunately, the marauders have gone mad, and the overall potential of the Russian army remains very high. In the early days, the 'operation' was carried out by about 180 000 Drisks, but now the concentrated front line is being stormed and defended by about 350 000 Waltons. The Kremlin is ready to mobilise half a million more. And it will mobilise a million more if necessary. We must see this as a very real possibility.
So who, how and in what way, and with what quantities of weapons, will disperse such a huge horde from Ukrainian soil? Bearing in mind that, even with technological superiority, an attack would require at least three times as many forces.
And what happens if Russia, which is currently short of missiles and drones, is backed by China which is increasingly dominating the international scene? We do not prejudge Russia, but we think and forecast away from the wishful thinking that clouds the brains of many who want victory.
There is no doubt that the West will intensify its support for Ukraine, the fighting will intensify and the Kremlin will drag more meat and iron to the east of Ukraine. It is going to be a very difficult, long and bloody year, full of senseless victims. And Ukrainian casualties, too. Can we stop all this? If we can, how much will this cost in Ukrainian blood?
We would very much like to be wrong. God forbid that Satan should get the upper hand and that his armies should be killed, but we must anticipate all possible options and be able to see what is happening in the enemy camp.
We must anticipate all the enemy's possible moves.
China, as we have said, is increasingly involved in geopolitical games. And while Mr Zelensky welcomed China's concern for world peace, he does not see any concrete 'peace plan' in the 'peace' points it has proposed. Beijing's peace slogans and slogans are reminiscent of the worthless rantings of the brainless Soviet Communist Party behemoths about peace on earth.
Meanwhile, the US suspects that China is preparing to provide Russia with drones, drone components or to launch drone production lines in Russia. Beijing is testing the West, the US, with these moves, and if it does not get the necessary response, if Russian support for Beijing is not painful, a continuous river of arms from the East will turn towards Moscow.
The Ukrainian President, when asked at a press conference yesterday whether he would negotiate with Putin if Erdogan invited them to the negotiating table, replied that he would not talk to Putin.
You can not talk to Putin, but then you have to talk to Jinping, who is probably the only one who can end the war in Ukraine in one day. The Latin American and African countries that Zelensky has called on to join the peace formula proposed by Kyiv cannot, unfortunately, do so.
The Chinese Foreign Minister told his counterpart in Belarus that Beijing was ready to work with Minsk to deepen the pair's mutual political trust. China will continue to support Belarus in its efforts to resist interference in its internal affairs by external forces, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said. Is it not clear what China wants to say when it supports a quasi-state that supports the aggressor and gives its territory to the massacre?
We believe that these moves by Beijing are purposeful, calculated and measured. China, having assessed the prospects of a year-long war and having seen the economic, military and diplomatic weaknesses of the Western powers, is increasing the pressure. Beijing is demonstratively supporting and will support Moscow and Minsk, causing even more headaches for Brussels and Washington, so that, come X-day, Taiwan's independence can be put on the line.
Trouble does not come one by one. When you put the Bolshevik lice on your head, the Communist suction cup comes out and starts pumping blood.
"The peoples of the world continue to support Ukraine because we all recognise that if we abandon Ukraine, we abandon the UN Charter itself and the principles and rules that make all countries safer and more secure," US Secretary of State Blinken told the UN Security Council.
We prefer the US classic of declaring that 'there is no negotiating with terrorists' and of educating with heavy weapons in the terrorist arsenal.
Operational level
No major changes.
Germany announced that it will transfer four additional Leopard 2A6 tanks to Ukraine. This will allow the formation of a single tank battalion of 31 tanks together with Portugal (3 Leopard 2A6) and Sweden (10 Strv 122).
Canada will transfer an additional four Leopards to Ukraine on top of the four previously promised.
Sweden will transfer IRIS-T and Hawk anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine in one package with tanks. "Ukraine needs air defence systems and it is very important for Ukraine that Russia does not gain an air superiority. This is an opportunity that we need to secure in the long term," said Swedish Defence Minister Pol Jonsson.
A very valid point, and one that Uncle Sam is well aware of. Modern warfare is won by whoever has the advantage in the air. That is why the Driskis are attacking like cockroaches in the style of the First World War.
Yesterday, Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, appealed to the United Nations Security Council to adopt Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's 10-point peace plan, which is said to be in line with the UN-approved resolution calling on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine.
"The aim of the plan is to push Russia out of Ukraine and make the world safer. Obviously, any new peace proposals should now be in line with the demands of the resolution," Kuleba said.
The plans and intentions are cool and right, but what force will force Russia not to fire on Ukrainian territory even if all Russian terrorists are cleared out of the country? Maybe it is necessary to destroy the threat potential?
The Kremlin has declared that any attack on the Moldovan people or Transnistria will be considered an attack on the Russian Federation.
Oh, how terrible.
Tactical level
Last day, the Russian invaders carried out 27 air strikes and 75 attacks with cruise missile systems. Towns and villages and civilian populations were hit.
The threat level of enemy missile strikes remains high throughout the territory of Ukraine.
In the Black Sea, the Russians have reportedly doubled the size of their fleet of ships carrying Kalibr missiles. Russian aviation has also intensified, which may indicate that another missile and drone attack is in the pipeline.
The Russian occupiers continue to strangle the ring around Bakhmut.
After destroying more than 80% of the residential buildings in Mariupol, the occupiers are offering the local population housing on the outskirts of the city. Documentation proving the loss of ownership is a prerequisite. Since the inhabitants of the burnt-down houses are unable to do so, there is no doubt that the Kremlin is thus carrying out the Russification of the occupied areas. The settlers of Mariupol will soon be the Sasha, Masha and Seryozha of Russia.
Last day, units of the Ukrainian Defence Forces shot down a Russian Mi-24 attack helicopter and destroyed 4 air defence systems. Ukrainian aviation struck 20 strikes against the concentration points of the occupying forces' personnel and military equipment, as well as 2 strikes against the firing positions of anti-aircraft missile systems. Rocket and artillery strikes hit a Driski checkpoint, 2 live meat concentration points and 3 ammunition depots.
Ukraine is increasing the width of the Ukraine-Russia and Ukraine-Belarus border protection zone to 2 km. It is reported that this will be virtually mined territory.
Photo shows a Ukrainian position near Vuhledar. Source - AEvgeniy Maloletka, apnews.com
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