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THE INVASION OF UKRAINE BY RUSSIA AND BELARUS. SITUATION OVERVIEW 2023 01 02 / 11:00

Political strategic level

In view of Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Japan plans to invite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to attend the G7 summit in Hiroshima from 19-21 May.

As host of the G7 summit, Japan wants to facilitate intensive discussions on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. G7 coordination on Ukraine is an important step in preparing for a possible conflict around Taiwan.

Indeed, if another nuclear power were to join the global madness, the misery of the past year would look like a holiday in Xinjiang.

In her New Year greetings, the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, assured the Ukrainians that she will continue to support them. She called 2022 a difficult year for Europe. In a video message, the President of the European Parliament, against the backdrop of the brutal invasion of Ukraine, recalled the fight against the coronavirus, the climate challenge and the energy crisis.

"In 2023, we must redouble our efforts to protect our values. Most importantly, we will continue to support Ukraine in its quest for peace and freedom, peace and dignity, peace and security," she said.

We expect that redoubled efforts will mean twice as many tanks, twice as many fighter jets and twice as many strikes on Russian Federation military targets. But... no matter what number you multiply the zero by, there is always a zero at the end of the equation.

NATO has warned that Russia is preparing for a protracted war and a possible new offensive by mobilising more forces and increasing its military presence. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stressed that in this situation the Western partners should plan for long-term assistance to Ukraine in its war against Russia.

He said that the achievements of the Ukrainian army should not give the misleading impression of an imminent Kyiv victory. Russia has mobilised and replenished its troops and many of those mobilised are currently undergoing training. All this indicates that the enemy is preparing to continue the war and may try to launch a new offensive," Stoltenberg said.

Commenting on the possibility of providing Ukraine with medium-range missiles, Stoltenberg said that "there is an ongoing dialogue between NATO allies and Ukraine on specific systems".

Meanwhile, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikoff said earlier that the Western partners were hesitant to provide Ukraine with weapons capable of reaching targets 300 kilometres or more away. He noted that the issue of "non-escalation" by the Western partners is constantly heard.

We have said repeatedly, and we will say it again and again, that Ukraine must have weapons that can hit military targets in Russia.

Mikhail Podoliak, Adviser to the Head of the Presidential Chancellery, said that Russia's main fear is that Ukraine will not change its position and will go all the way. He said that Ukraine has set its negotiating positions, but the Russians want to force it to change them. The most important thing is that any agreement will only be considered after Russia has withdrawn its troops from Ukrainian territory.

"Russia's greatest fear is that Ukraine will reach the end of the line: there will be no backroom separatist deals, as has been the norm in Russian foreign policy. Russia started to put pressure, something went wrong, but they went ahead with what they needed", Podoliak explained.

Finnish President Sauli Niinisto compared Russian President Putin to Stalin in his New Year's speech. He said that the horrors of the Great War had returned to Europe in 2022 and that Finland's foreign and security policy was currently undergoing a historic turning point.

"If Russia thought that a large-scale threat would quickly bring Ukraine to its knees, it was very wrong. One cannot help but think of the similarities with our Winter War situation, when the Soviets thought they would march on Helsinki in two weeks. Stalin and Putin, as leaders of an authoritarian country, underestimated a key factor. People living in a free country have their own will and beliefs. And that a people working together is a great force", he said.

Lithuania's war after war with the entire Soviet machine is another great historical example. And even though our nation lost a quarter of its people in the Soviet genocide, we persevered and later won our freedom. We will help Ukraine to stand up now.

With the New Year, Croatia heralded two historic developments: the youngest member of the European Union joined the EU's borderless Schengen area and the single currency, the euro, fulfilling long-held aspirations for closer integration into Europe.

"If there are historic moments, special moments that should give us great honour, and when we see the achievement of the strategic goals of the state, this is such a day," Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic said later on Sunday at a ceremony at the border. He was joined by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who hailed the day as "a day to celebrate".

Croatia joined the EU in 2013, becoming the 27th country to join the Schengen area and the 20th to adopt the euro.

Operational level

No changes.

29 December last year Russia announced the end of mobilisation, but Ukrainian intelligence believes that a new wave of mobilisation in Russia will begin in the first half of January. Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikoff says that in early January the Russian authorities will close the borders to men, declare martial law and launch another wave of mobilisation. He said the borders will also be closed in Belarus.

We believe that Russia is preparing a key event for this, so that it can explain such decisions to its zombified public. Until then, there will probably be a secret mobilisation, as there has been up to now, and foreign diplomats will be doing their utmost to get weapons from Iran, Syria and the Shakoreans.

Last night, the terrorist state of Russia launched yet another mass attack with drones and missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the destruction of 39 Shahed-131/136 kamikazes, two operational-level Orlan-10 drones and an X-59 guided missile. 15 enemy drones were destroyed over neighbouring regions, 3 in the Kyiv region, and 22 drones were destroyed over the capital, the Mayor of Kyiv said.

Russia has not deployed any missile carrier ships in the Black Sea since yesterday. The reason for this is primarily the weather. But Russian ships also need supplies. "Now the situation at sea is stormy, the sea is on our side again. It has become very intense, so the missile carriers have been forced to return to their bases. After the attack on 29 December, in which they were used, they came to resupply", said N. Humeniuk, spokeswoman for the Ukrainian Southern Group.

Kirill Budanov, head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence's Main Intelligence Directorate, assessing Russia's capacity to continue the war, said that Russia has missiles for two mass attacks against Ukraine, but that the Russian arms situation will become critical within two months. He also mentioned that the Russians are suffering insane losses near Bakhmut, but that more than 70% of Russian citizens support the war. Mr Budanov claimed that Russia (and Belarus) are preparing to close their borders to male citizens under 55 years of age from 5 January.

Tactical level

At the time the Russian army shelled Ukrainian cities on the night of 1 January, Vladimir Putin was in a bunker far from Moscow, outside the Ural Mountains. "Putin celebrated the New Year with his family and a few close friends. Among those invited were Yuri Kovalchuk and Nikolai Patrushev", one of the Soctinkli reports said. The head of Russia's Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, was the only representative of the current regime invited to the Kremlin leader's New Year's table.

Serhiy Cherevaty, a spokesman for the Ukrainian army's Eastern Group, reported that on the last day of 2022, Ukrainian troops killed more than 170 and wounded more than 200 so-called Russian soldiers during 23 clashes with the occupiers near Bakhmut.

Yesterday, Ukrainian defenders destroyed a building in Makeyevka that housed the occupiers' headquarters and improvised barracks for mobilised troops with a precision HIMARS round. According to initial estimates, 53 armed Russian Wallahs and Marauders were killed and 97 wounded.

Over the past day, the enemy launched 51 air strikes, including 44 Shahed-136 drone strikes. All were shot down by units of the Ukrainian Defence Forces. The enemy fired 55 rounds of salvo rocket fire at infrastructure, including a children's hospital in Kherson.

Over the past day, 12 attacks by the occupying forces on the eastern front have been repelled by units of the Defence Forces.

Elsewhere, the occupying forces fired tanks, mortars and barrel artillery at both defensive positions and civilian infrastructure.

In total, more than 175 enemy personnel were wounded, 12 weapons and military equipment of various types and an enemy ammunition depot were destroyed. Information on the liquidated invaders is being revised.

Defence Forces aviation carried out 13 strikes in areas where the invaders were concentrated. For their part, rocket and artillery units struck 5 areas of concentration of enemy manpower and equipment per day.

Photo: it seems that Vladdy Putin is so afraid of his soldiers that he wears a bulletproof vest under his jacket. A very good sign.

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