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THE INVASION OF UKRAINE BY RUSSIA AND BELARUS. SITUATION OVERVIEW 2023 01 03 / 11:00

Political strategic level

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke yesterday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and confirmed the strong support of European partners for Ukraine and its people in their fight against Russian aggression. Ms Leyen said that Ukraine will soon start receiving macro-financial assistance in the form of monthly disbursements from an aid package totalling €18 billion. The 24th Ukraine-EU summit was confirmed for 3 February 2023.

In 2022, the EU provided €19 billion in financial assistance to Ukraine. For the first time in its history, the EU provided €3.1 billion in direct military aid to Ukraine, and the Temporary Protection Directive was launched, allowing millions of Ukrainian refugees, mainly women and children, to enter EU territory and receive basic social services, including healthcare, education and employment. The European Commission has provided €100 million to rebuild destroyed schools in Ukraine.

Former German army general Hans-Lothar Domrose said that the war would probably end in the summer "when both sides say it is going nowhere". The General believes that the stalemate will occur between February and May. "That would be a good time to negotiate a ceasefire", says Domrose. Negotiations do not mean peace. It could mean a temporary ceasefire, with a search for negotiating mediators to break the deadlock. Negotiating mediators could be UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres or Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

This information can be taken as a signal to the Kremlin that it cannot win the war and that negotiations are the only way out. However, such a statement also says that Ukraine cannot win. It is a strange, ambiguous message, especially after NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has made it more than clear that NATO will support Ukraine until victory. The West is using this communication to make the collective Putin realise that there are only two options for ending the war - defeat without negotiation or peace talks.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin is interpreting the messages of Western officials in its own way and announcing that the US has named a condition for ending support for Ukraine. Michael Allen, a former Bush adviser, is reported to have said that the West will stop supporting Ukraine if the war is not successful. Moscow continues to argue that unchecked support for Volodymyr Zelensky endangers both the West and democracy in Ukraine.

Lies. US politician Michael Allen claims that the Russians are trying to break the morale of the Ukrainians with massive missile attacks, to convince the Europeans that the war will be a long one, while the Ukrainians are asking the US for more support. Both sides are on the offensive and do not want to back down, and the Ukrainians are winning, especially in the south. Zelensky has to "press the accelerator" to win.

By spreading disinformation, the Russians are trying to influence Western countries, especially the US, to try to show that support for Kyiv is pointless, because Russia is prepared for a long war and Ukraine will lose anyway.

German Chancellor Scholz is reported to have contacted Putin about possible talks on ending the war. Although Berlin does not believe that the Kremlin is ready to achieve a just peace with Ukraine, it is in contact with the Russian Federation.

At the same time, Christian Wagner, spokesman for the German Foreign Ministry, says that Russia has not made any serious proposals for peace talks. This is confirmed, in particular, by the 'brutal bombing campaign' of Ukrainian cities in recent days.

The communication of Macron's concern about 'Putin's face' seems to be transferred to Scholz. The Western leaders have probably decided to test the adequacy of the Kremlin's leader by making periodic phone calls to him and yammering nonsensical babble. Berlin can rest easy. Putin is perfectly adequate. As he was before the war. He is consistently pursuing his plan to occupy Europe with Berlin in corpore, only he is pretty shit at it.

Germany's domestic intelligence agency is warning of increasing activity by the Russian secret services. "Russia's intelligence interest here in Germany is not only continuing, it is increasing as the effects of the war continue," says Thomas Haldenwang, head of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. The intelligence chief believes that Moscow will try to retaliate for the expulsion of 40 Russian officials, whom Germany considered persona non grata. There is also a major effort to prevent the further entry into Germany of people linked to the Russian special services.

Germany will have to work long and hard to shake off the effects of schrioderisation, the spies and openly malicious actors in the Russian diaspora, and the pro-Kremlin business, financial and other structures that have enveloped the country.

Gazprom's gas exports to countries outside the group of former Soviet republics dropped by 45.5% in 2022. Gazprom reports that exports outside the Commonwealth of Independent States amounted to 100.9 billion cubic metres, compared to 185.1 billion cubic metres in 2021.Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller says that despite the increase in gas flows to China, Gazprom has had a "very, very tough" year.

Unexpected confession. This is good news for us, given that almost half of Russia's budget revenue comes from the energy sector.

Operational level

A key event, or rather a chain of events, seems to be emerging which could be the trigger for Moscow's decision to declare martial law, another mass mobilisation, to close the country's borders. The Kremlin is more than ever announcing the intensification of the attacks on Ukraine in abundance and openly.

The Russian Ministry of Defence reports that 63 soldiers were killed in the Makiivka attack. Russian air defences are said to have shot down a Ukrainian drone as it approached the Russian city of Voronezh. It is reported that just after the New Year, the Ukrainian army shelled the territory of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic 14 times in three hours. Social networks are full of reports of air raid sirens in Kursk, Belgorod, Novorossiysk, Rostov, St Petersburg and even Moscow.

The Kremlin desperately needs confirmation that Russia is under attack, to declare another 'war of the fatherland' and to push hundreds of thousands of Russians to the front line. To die.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are not letting the Russian general-balloons and their gangs of Walnuts rest easy. Up to 700 Drisks are sent to Kobzon every day, and since the start of the full-scale war, the Ukrainian defenders have already sent 107 440 of Putin's troops there. Russia's losses are approaching Moscow's manpower losses in the "Winter War" with Finland. In that war, by the way, the Russians were destroyed in a very similar way, thanks to the wisdom of General Mannerheim and the heroism of the Finnish people.

Ukrainian intelligence believes that the Russians may launch a simultaneous offensive from the north and the east, and that there will be an attempt to seize the whole of the Donetsk region.

Andriy Chernyak, the spokesman for the State Intelligence Service of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, says that the Russians realise that they are losing, but have no intention of ending the war. Ukrainian defenders are prepared for possible Driski attacks, which are doomed to failure.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russia is planning a sustained aerial bombardment campaign using Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicles to force Ukraine to surrender. In the first two days of 2023 alone, Ukrainian forces shot down more than 80 drones. Russian terrorist gangs are increasingly using so-called kamikaze drones, which land vertically at high speeds on a target, causing extensive damage and killing people.

Tactical level

The Russian occupiers continue their military actions to seize territories up to the administrative border of the Donetsk region. The main efforts are focused on maintaining the offensive potential and repairing losses.

Russian terrorists are continuing missile strikes and artillery shelling, destroying key Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian housing.

Over the past day, the enemy has fired 6 missiles, 52 airstrikes and 77 shelling attacks with rocket fire systems. The enemy fired all 6 rockets as well as 30 air strikes on civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian Defence Forces shot down all 27 Shahed-136 unmanned aerial vehicles used in the attacks.

The losers continue their attempts to advance towards Bakhmut and to improve their tactical positions in the direction of Liman and Avdiivka.

Ukrainian Defence Forces units have confirmed that enemy losses in the area of the Chulakivka settlement in the Kherson region amount to around 500 wounded and dead.

Over the past day, Ukrainian military aviation has carried out 13 strikes against enemy personnel, weapons and military equipment concentrations and 5 strikes against airborne missile complexes.

Ukrainian defenders shot down an enemy Ka-52 helicopter and 3 Orlan-10 reconnaissance aircraft.

Over the past day, the Ukrainian Defence Forces rocket and artillery units shelled the Drisks' concentrations and military equipment, as well as a radar station.

Photo: Little joys.

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