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  • Writer's pictureAurimas Navys


Political strategic level

Serhiy Cherevaty, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Forces, commented on NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's statement that Bakhmut will fall in the coming days. The military spokesman mildly criticised the NATO leadership. He said that "the last war with which NATO had a major connection was the wars in the former Yugoslavia, which were much smaller in size, troop deployment, etc. So they are more used to stabilisation, training or peacekeeping missions".

The officer said that NATO is finding it difficult to understand the logic and motives of the Russian war. "They approach it in a purely pragmatic way, based on dry calculations, sometimes not realising that the Ukrainians, who have been involved in such a war for a year, have built up a much higher level of resilience and tactical decision-making power. I therefore think that NATO is studying this, and they need to study it further. I think that such statements should be treated with respect, but with the understanding that they do not fully understand the whole situation", explained the representative of the Ukrainian Eastern Force Group.

We believe that it is virtually impossible for today's Western European citizen, whether he is a NATO document administrator, a political leader or a general on the staff, to understand Russian logic. NATO staff are educated intellectuals who try to explain the 'Russian phenomenon' through the matrix of their Western worldview and values. This is not even possible after watching the film 'Heart of a Dog' twenty-two times, and for them to get into Sharikov's inner world at all is mission impossible.

But if Western intellectuals such as the economist Jens Stoltenberg had drunk vodka with Serioga day in, day out, for ten or fifteen years, had been punched in the face by Serioga, and then kissed by him for respecting Serioga, Sralin, Zhukov and Suvorov, they would either be lying in the prophylaxis ward now, or they would be aware of the simplicity of the Russian 'logic', which is as simple as two Russian kopecks: robbery, kidnapping, theft, terror, murder, liberally spiked with alcohol, a spiritual "culture" based on rape and sadism, belittling of other people, especially non-Russians, in every possible way, and for the immediate environment, the family, the greatest possible good is tulips for the boba and ice-cream for the children, and that only for a reason: so that the boba does not die, and the children do not die and the children do not die, and, well, that is how the other Shariks do. That's all. This is the usual formula for the life of an occupier and a looter, and there is no need to look for "logic" in it.

The Russian Ministry of Terror and Defence stated that the day before yesterday's shelling was a "massive retaliatory strike by the armed forces of the Russian Federation". This was allegedly in retaliation for Ukraine's act of terror by invading the Bryansk region and taking the inhabitants of a village hostage. According to the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate, Russia had been preparing for this strike for a month.

We do not quite understand why Putin needs a justification for such acts of terror. It is the outdated KGB 'school' of the Sralin era, when 'Finland attacked the Soviet Union' and the Soviets retaliated, or the new-age bombing of apartment blocks in Rasieya in order to attack Chechnya. Probably, like all dictators, he is more concerned with going down in history as a fighter for alleged values than being labelled a murderer and a criminal. The loser Putin does not realise that he has already made a name for himself in world history.

Terrorist No 1, war criminal, rapist of children and their mothers, murderer of fathers, destroyer of cities.

The world's media have published a call for vigilance from Elegijus Paulavičius, Director of the Second Operational Services Department of the Lithuanian Intelligence Service under the Ministry of National Defence, "because Russia is not yet defeated in the war". The Lithuanian official stresses that Russia now has the resources to continue an intense war for two years.

Yes, Russia can continue the war for two years, or even nine, as we calculate. I am glad that our military intelligence is calculating and forecasting. In this case, it is not so much the accuracy of the forecast that is important, but the fact of trying to anticipate the enemy's moves and consequences in advance. The fact that the mainstream media has picked up on this message shows that there is a general and fundamental lack of rational, informed insights and forecasts in the West, on the basis of which planning and actions on the ground can be organised.

This fact demonstrates that Lithuania and its political leaders could act as guides for the leaders of the Western countries, clarifying perspectives and showing guidelines for the fight against Russia. For the time being, we are still a complex little village, which is currently going through an electoral show of 'he said, he said, he narrowed, he broadened, he talked, he talked', and, unfortunately, we cannot see beyond our own nose. It is true that there is sometimes a celebration in the village when a certain elder is shown on the BBC and then all the relatives rejoice that Petriukas has tied his "slip" nicely and spoken English correctly. Indeed, a great achievement for an EU and NATO country with ministers who do not speak English.

The propagandist Solovyov threatened revenge against Ursula von der Leyen and Annalena Berbock, saying that he would "like to see you dealt with by Russian soldiers". "Wait for it! There will be a T-90 in front of your shitty Reichstag!" - the propagandist voices his dreams.

We hope that the ladies realise that these words are not just for nothing: the Russian maestros dream of raping and killing the ladies of Berlin and Brussels in front of their husbands and children.

The mobilised Russians from the Kaliningrad region are reportedly refusing to storm Ukrainian positions. Videos of Russian soldiers refusing to fight, choosing between passive defence of their positions and prison, are circulating on social networks. Russian soldiers say they would rather spend 5-7 years behind bars than die for nothing.

We have repeatedly written that this is the most rational choice for a Russian soldier: a few years in prison is more worthwhile than being a fertiliser of Ukrainian corn and sunflowers forever.

Ukrainian intelligence warns of a major provocation on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. Several Russian subversive groups are said to be on their way to Belarus, planning the destruction of Belarusian infrastructure and possible civilian casualties. The aim of the provocation is to create a hostile attitude among Belarusian citizens towards Ukraine and to ensure the full participation of the country's armed forces in the war against Ukraine. The saboteurs and provocateurs are allegedly accompanied by journalists, led by Putin's propagandist Solovyov, who are going to Belarus to "cover" the events according to a pre-determined scenario.

Artists. Dangerous entertainers.

While Russia is reinforcing its military forces on Belarusian territory, Ukraine is reinforcing its border areas. The strip along the Ukrainian border is being increased to 2 km wide.

US President Biden's administration unveils a budget for the 2024 fiscal year that asks the State Department and the US Agency for International Development to allocate USD 63.1 billion, including special funding for Ukraine. This is an increase of almost USD 5 billion compared to the revised budget for fiscal year 2023.

The request includes $1.7 billion to "help Ukraine win the war and lay the foundations for reform and reconstruction to achieve peace, as well as to help other war-affected partners stabilise their economies and prepare for recovery".

The new budget increases funding by USD 1.5 million to counter Russian propaganda and disinformation.

After the visit of America's top diplomat to Ankara, Turkish customs suddenly remembered that circumventing sanctions is illegal. Turkey suddenly stopped shipments of "sanctioned goods" to Russia, reports Reuters. There will be no official explanation from Turkey, it is said, as this would be Ankara's way of admitting that it is helping Russia to circumvent the sanctions.

Some interlocutors have suggested to the publication that the suspension of the transit of sanctioned goods is directly linked to the recent visit of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Turkey.

Turkey has recently helped Russia circumvent sanctions by supplying advanced chips and microchips manufactured in the EU and other countries. US officials have explicitly warned Turkey that if it continues to help Russia circumvent sanctions, it could face unpleasant consequences.

A separate area of Turkish assistance to the aggressor is the large-scale purchase of Russian oil by Turkish companies. Some of this oil is refined in Turkish refineries and some is resold.

The Turks are good at maths. Therefore, they will certainly not object to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

Ukraine is included in the EU's gas pooling scheme in order to purchase 2 billion cubic metres of this fuel by next winter. EU countries plan to come together to sign their first joint gas contracts in the coming months to help fill storage ahead of peak winter demand, when countries will replace Russian gas.

NATO and the EU are Lithuania's only salvation. If it were not for the powerful European economy of which we are a part, and if it were not for NATO, our economy would have collapsed today and our independence would be hanging in the balance before the open jaws of the Russian bear.

The EU's energy chief tells countries not to renew Russian LNG contracts. "I call on all Member States and all companies to stop buying Russian LNG and not to sign any new gas contracts with Russia when the existing contracts expire," says Kadri Simson.

The EU has pledged to move away from Russian fossil fuels by 2027 and last year replaced around two-thirds of Russian gas.

While Moscow has reduced gas flows through pipelines, Russian LNG supplies to Europe increased to 22 billion cubic metres last year, compared to around 16 billion cubic metres in 2021, EU analysis shows.

The US sanctions a China-based network that supplies parts for Iranian drones used by the Russian military. The US Treasury Department yesterday announced sanctions against Chinese companies in an attempt to stop the Kremlin's support for the war machine and its financing of the Iranian regime, as the two countries have recently improved their relations.

This Chinese network supplies parts to an Iranian aircraft manufacturing company which, according to the US Government, helps to produce the Shahed-136 unmanned aerial vehicle, which has been exported to Russia and is being used in the war against Ukraine.

We still believe that the Chinese have not lost their common sense and have no intention of going to war with the West at the hands of Russia, while at the same time trading with both sides. It is strange that Beijing should choose a partner that represents 1% of the world economy. This is probably the Putin syndrome, the senile marasmus of Xi, who does not think about the world of the future, but only about his personal life until the end of the world.

Operational level

No fundamental changes.

Maintaining Bakhmut is becoming more and more important by the day, according to Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Ukrainian Land Forces. Ukraine's importance in holding the eastern city of Bakhmut is "steadily increasing", he says, as each day of sustained resistance allows the Kyiv forces to reduce the Russian offensive capabilities. "In the battles for this stronghold, the enemy is losing the most highly trained and combat-ready part of its army - Wagner", Syrskyi says. Taking Bakhmut would open up a wide-ranging offensive for Russia.

At present, Russian occupiers, criminals and vagrants are already entrenched in the eastern part of the city, up to the Bakhmutka river.

With all due respect to the Ukrainian commanders and to every soldier fighting for their land and our freedom, it is only for the sake of the lives of Ukrainian soldiers that we are seeking to bring the country's armed forces up to NATO standards, so that ground troops will not be left alone to fight the wallahs without air and artillery support.

Training of Ukrainian troops to operate Leopard 2 tanks has reportedly been completed in Poland and Ukraine has received the remaining 10 of the 14 tanks promised. In addition to the 14 Polish Leopard 2 tanks, the battalion has 4 tanks from Canada, 8 from Norway and 6 from Spain".

Ukraine is slowly building muscle for its planned offensive. We look forward to seeing the Leopards on the battlefield.

Tactical level

Last day, terrorist Russia struck another massive missile strike on Ukraine's critical infrastructure and civilian targets.

In total, the invaders fired 95 missiles of various types into Ukrainian territory over the past day. The country's air defence forces destroyed 34 missiles. The Russians launched 31 air strikes, including Shahed-136 unmanned aerial vehicles, half of which were shot down. 65 shells were fired from rocket-propelled grenades.

The missile threat level remains high throughout Ukraine.

Last day, Ukrainian troops repelled 102 cruise missile attacks. The enemy continues to make active advances into Bakhmut, as if this city were as important as "New Berlin".

Over the past day, Ukrainian military aviation has struck 13 strikes on the occupiers' personnel and equipment bases, and forged the positions of an anti-aircraft missile complex.

Rocket troops and artillery units struck a Driski command post, 6 Russian concentration points, 2 logistics centres, 3 ammunition depots, 6 radio-electronic warfare stations and 2 air defence systems in firing positions.

The photo shows a dog that survived, but both its owners were killed by a Russian terrorist attack launched yesterday. Source:

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