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  • Writer's pictureAurimas Navys


Political strategic level
Valery Zaluzhny, Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, stated that Mariupol will be liberated this year. "The losses of 15,000 in Afghanistan have actually brought the USSR to its knees. Now the number of losses of the Russian Federation is much higher. We have a different tactic and strategy. We don't have the capacity to spend a lot of ammunition to destroy our infrastructure, it doesn't make sense," the General said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also promised to liberate Crimea. Also this year. "It depends on all of us. There are military steps, we are preparing for them. We are preparing morally, we are preparing technically: with weapons, with reinforcements, with the formation of brigades, with the formation of offensive brigades - of different categories and of different types," the President said.
According to the Ukrainian intelligence service, Crimea is preparing morally for the de-occupation of the peninsula. The Crimean population is actively informing them about what is happening in Crimea. According to Kyrylo Budanov, head of military intelligence, Ukraine will return Crimea through a combination of force and diplomacy. Crimean Radio broadcast an address by Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian intelligence, in which he warned that Crimea, the Donbas and the whole of the south of Ukraine will return home once and for all.
Of course Crimea will come home again and the whole of the Donbas will be liberated. But it is a little premature to announce the liberation of Crimea. The first step is to liberate Kherson and to move closer to the administrative border of Crimea. We see such bold statements by the commanders as part of a psychological operation to break the fighting spirit of the enemy and to strike terror into the hearts of the occupiers and their henchmen. Who knows, maybe when the missiles start flying towards the Crimean peninsula, the fed-up Colorado Drisks will scatter wherever their eyes lead.
Moscow is also resorting to intimidation tactics. Dmitry Medvedev, the newly sober deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, declared at the Shipbuilders' Day ceremony in St Petersburg that for Russia to secure a lasting peace with Ukraine, the borders of hostile states must be pulled back.
"Victory will be achieved. We all want it to happen as soon as possible. And that day will come", said the drunkard. He predicted that the difficult negotiations with Ukraine and the West would result in "some kind of agreement. <...> That is why it is so important to achieve all the objectives of the special military operation. To push back as far as possible the borders that threaten our country, even if they are the Polish borders", Medvedev ranted, shivering.
What the sober patient meant to say is still unclear: that Russia will negotiate with Ukraine if NATO pulls back (where?) its borders, that Russia will defeat Ukraine, or that Russia threatens to attack Poland. One thing is clear: any violation of Poland's borders would bring Russia into direct conflict with NATO for the first time.
By the way, Poland is these days reinforcing and fortifying the entrance to its country from both Russian and Belarusian territory with concrete barriers and anti-tank passages.
Delusions cannot be ignored, even though they are delusions. It is part and parcel of hybrid warfare. Poland is showing Russia by its actions that it is prepared for all scenarios and would kick the Mordor Waltzes in the teeth before they set foot on foreign soil.
The G20 failed to adopt a joint statement on the war in Ukraine: it was opposed by - well, of course, who else - stepmother China and her young stepdaughter Russia. The US insisted that the meeting should end with a direct condemnation of Russia for invading a sovereign country. However, Russia and China disagreed with this statement, and India objected to the use of the word 'war' in the communiqué. The Indian doves of peace understand that what is happening in Ukraine is a mere 'operation'.
However, a third point remained in the document: "The majority of participants strongly condemn the war in Ukraine and note that it has caused immense human suffering and has exacerbated the problems of the global economy by stunting economic growth, accelerating inflation, disrupting supply chains, increasing the risks of energy and food risks, and increasing the risk of financial instability".
India refused to discuss sanctions against Russia at the G20. It wanted to avoid discussions and conflicts during the meeting.
Watching these meaningless gatherings and useless declarations by the serious representatives of the world, the very fact of the meeting inspires a drop of hope that, even if there is no communication, there is somehow still talking. And the published declaration can be put you know where.
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have reportedly suggested to Volodymyr Zelensky that he consider returning to the negotiating table with Russia. Macron reportedly told Zelensky that after the Second World War, even mortal enemies such as France and Germany had to make peace.
An unpopular but rational proposal, which Zelensky, reading his soundbites, is not yet considering at all. The President of Ukraine wants to end the war sitting on the white horse of victory. But. If such a victory is not possible today, or is only achievable at the cost of enormous sacrifices, then perhaps it is necessary to act outside the box. Perhaps negotiations with Moscow, with the participation of Washington and Ankara, would slow down the hostilities and the killing. The pause could be used to stockpile weapons, prepare for the liberation of the occupied territories and to strangle Russia internationally. In parallel, work to destroy the Putler regime in Moscow.
What Kyiv needs (with the West's help) is a cunning plan to outflank Russia and destroy the Kremlin junta.
If Putin wins, he will threaten Georgia, Moldova, the Baltic States and all the former members of the Soviet Union, wrote former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham in their column in The Wall Street Journal. Putin's defeat must therefore be total. The politicians point out that Putin will see himself as the winner if he keeps control of the occupied territories and shows the world that borders can be changed by force.
It seems to us that, at this point, the statement has been made in a reckless and, in a sense, rather dangerous way. First of all, Putin's somehow mystical total defeat will not happen in itself if it is not clear how to achieve it. Secondly, it is unwise and to Moscow's advantage to take the Baltic States out of the NATO context and to juxtapose them with Moldova and Georgia.
The desire of politicians to be on the front pages and headlines of the mainstream media every day is understandable. That is the business of politics and that is the reality of the war show today. Consumers are eager to 'eat up' soundbites and hopeful messages without looking at their content and reality. However, when mainstream energy is devoted to this, important things on the ground are affected.
Meanwhile, Zelensky has stated about the collapse of the Putin regime: 'Robbers will find a reason to kill a murderer'. There will come a moment when the fragility of the Putin regime will be felt inside Russia. "Then the predators will eat the predator. They will need a reason, they will remember Zelensky's words, something else. They will find a reason to kill the murderer". At the same time, Zelensky said that there was no point in appealing to the Russian population because after the death of the Ukrainians "they applaud instead of crying, and this is a colossal tragedy".
Hm. So who is going to kill Putin if everybody applauds the slaughter he has organised?
According to Rhys Williams, chief investment officer at Spouting Rock Asset Management, as Russia's war in Ukraine passes the one-year mark, the markets are predicting that it will continue into 2024. "We can all cheer for Ukraine, but from the market's point of view, if Ukraine starts to win, it will increase the risk of tactical nuclear weapons and greater Chinese involvement," he said. "But if Russia wins, it will also make markets very nervous. I think both cases are unlikely and that the more likely case is a stalemate, which has more or less been priced in."
A risky view, demonstrating that the Kremlin's nuclear rhetoric and the constant blathering of the imperial Russian opposition about a collapsed Russia as a risk of nuclear war has gone to the heads of the West. The gurus of the world markets have also been influenced by the tales of the creation of numerous private armies in Russia and the possibility of a civil war over the country's resources.
Unfortunately, this is deliberate misleading and intimidation of the West. There is no such danger. Putin is not in charge of Russia and his death will not change anything in Moscow. Russia is ruled by an elite of military and security structures which have prepared scenarios for all eventualities. There is no possibility of the collapse of the empire and no nuclear threat. It was in the papers of the FSB's story-tellers and is now in the heads of the strategists of the Western markets.
Operational level
No change.
US President Joe Biden stated that Ukraine "does not need American F-16 fighter jets" "right now". "We are sending what our experienced military people believe is needed now. We need tanks, artillery, air defence, HIMARS", the politician noted. Biden stressed that the US is giving Ukraine what it needs to ensure success in the spring, summer and early autumn.
Well, to be fair, air dominance is not what is needed. It is one of the critical elements of war. This move by Washington is a reaction to China's proposal of a 'peace plan', while avoiding a sudden confrontation with Moscow and awaiting the Kremlin's reaction. We have no doubt that the fighter jets are only a matter of time. It is possible that they may appear in Ukraine and only then will this be announced from the political podium.
The Russian invaders are not giving up trying to break through the defences and take Bakhmut. The fighting has now moved to the outskirts of the city. The Ukrainian defenders are likely to leave ruins, and with them piles of mangled corpses and iron. That is the aim of the city's defence.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Putin is not prepared to make any compromises, including the demilitarisation of Ukraine and the replacement of the Kyiv government.
Meanwhile, Mr Zelensky claims that Russia is going to attack a NATO country to show Putin's success to his people. The Kremlin has continually provoked Ukraine and is now provoking it by launching a missile (which it did not do) over the territory of the NATO country Romania.
Zelensky's desire to frighten the West into giving up as many weapons as possible for fear of Russia's approach to NATO's borders is understandable. However, Russia will certainly not attack NATO and has no intention of doing so. At least for the foreseeable future. It has no one to talk to, and the leaders of the war criminal syndicate in the Kremlin are not suicidal.
It is regrettable that Kyiv is limiting himself to exhortations and threats, without developing a plan to involve NATO countries in a physical presence on Ukrainian territory. Let us remember why the Russian military operation in Sakartveld has stalled. It was because there were US military trainers in the country at the time. The physical presence of NATO troops or humanitarian specialists in the provision of aid and advice would have given Ukraine more options and would have restricted Russia's freedom of action. This would be a very strong support in diplomatic terms, which would also have a major impact on the battlefield. And Russia would not be able to reproach the West for supplying arms.
However, this message needs to be heard correctly: it is not about sending NATO troops to the front, but about the involvement of military specialists in humanitarian aid, in advisory services and, finally, in the protection of their own countries' representations. Or nuclear power plants against a potential disaster.
Tactical level
Last day, the Russian occupation army concentrated its efforts on offensive operations on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk axes.
The Ukrainian army stopped 71 enemy attacks.
The terrorists launched 14 rocket and 19 air strikes, and 57 attacks with cruise missile systems. The shelling caused civilian casualties.
The threat of further missile strikes remains high throughout Ukraine.
Kramatorsk was again shelled with rockets, injuring 1 person, destroying a clinic and damaging 8 houses.
The Russian occupiers are reinforcing the defence of temporarily occupied Crimea. 150 Russian conscripts from the Chelyabinsk region have arrived for construction work.
The prosecutor of the city of Horlivka in Donetsk region has reportedly resigned in fear of the imminent liberation of Ukrainian territories and is preparing to evacuate to Russia.
Last day, the Ukrainian air force launched 12 air strikes against the occupiers' personnel and military equipment. Ukrainian defenders shot down 3 different types of enemy UAVs: an Orlan-10, a Supercam S350 and a Lancet-3.
Ukrainian rocket and artillery forces hit a Driski command post, 2 enemy concentration points, a radar station, an electronic warfare station and 2 other important enemy targets.
Pictured here are Ukrainian soldiers near ZU-23-2, or "Zushka", which has recently been used for the "off-target" purpose of destroying the occupying forces.
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