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  • Writer's pictureAurimas Navys

UKRAINE TO STAGE MORE THAN ONE COUNTER-OFFENSIVE (12/05/2023)

Geopolitical situation

The Pentagon announces that the United States will support Ukraine for as long as necessary, regardless of the success of any future counter-offensive. Colonel Dave Butler, a spokesman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed that in internal discussions with US Army Chief Mark Milius it was never said that "if the Ukrainians don't get this and that, it's over".

According to Volodymyr Zelensky, the planned counter-attack against Russian forces will have to wait until the army is more prepared. Ukrainian troops are still waiting for some equipment such as armoured vehicles. "With what we have, we can move forward and experience success. But we would lose a lot of people. I think that is unacceptable. So we need to wait. We need a little more time," Zelensky said.

It is clear that Ukraine does not have the technical capacity to carry out a large-scale counter-offensive. This cannot be achieved with a few hundred Western tanks, even state-of-the-art ones, and a few dozen fighter jets. This amount of ammunition is sufficient to change the tactical situation on a small front. However, what the Ukrainian troops and people are demonstrating today is tantamount to a counter-offensive on the largest scale. Stopping such hordes ready to sweep away Europe and successfully attacking them in Bakhmut is already a huge success.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that the counter-attack is unlikely to be the last. He said that the counter-offensive would not succeed in liberating the whole of Ukrainian territory, which "means that we have to prepare for another counter-offensive".

We have been downplaying the euphoria of victory and unreasonable expectations for months, despite the fact that we have been labelled as enemies of Ukraine as a result. Emotions, the hope of victory, buying a drone, a tank or a plane, can mislead even important decision-makers. Wishful thinking undermines support, because why waste money and resources if we are going to celebrate victory tomorrow? Unreasonable expectations are a very dangerous, reality-distorting state of mind, which is particularly useful for Moscow. Moreover, by demanding victory, and only victory, from the Ukrainians, we are driving the defenders of Ukraine into a corner with our haste and desires. We repeat: victory over Putin's Russia - that is to say, its complete crushing - is possible today only through the combined military intervention of NATO and the Western countries.

Meanwhile, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin has stated that the US and NATO "will not allow themselves to be drawn into the war launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine". "We will not allow ourselves to be drawn into a war of Mr Putin's choosing, but we will support Ukraine as long as it defends itself, and we will continue to strengthen NATO's collective defence and deterrence capabilities", he said. All this means that Russia's crushing and Putin's tribunal are postponed for the distant future. We must face this reality without anger and resentment. We must see the world in a broader perspective, appreciate that the US is preparing for new challenges and threats from China (and Shakorea), Iran, South Africa, terrorists (besides Russia), cataclysms caused by climate change (human), etc.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs calls on the Georgian government to align its policy towards Russia with that of the EU. Oleh Mykolenko, spokesman for the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, says that "Russia is offering Georgia a deal with the devil. And in a deal with the devil, as you know, the devil wins". Russia has abolished visas for Kartvelians and decided to restore air links with Sakartvel, rewarding the country for not imposing sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine.

We are reminded, however, that today, 20% of the territory of Sakartvel is occupied by Russia, and the border itself is still 'creeping' towards Sakartvel. In 2008, Russian planes flew into Sakhartvel to bomb civilians, and now Russia is bombing the European future of the Karts. Moscow's aim is clear - to turn Sakartvel into Georgia, a concubine like Belarus is today.

Significant advances

The counter-attack by Ukrainian troops in western Bakhmut has brought heavy casualties to the Russians. According to Colonel General Oleksandr Sirsky, commander of the Ukrainian ground troops, the enemy was forced to retreat several kilometres. And Putin's cook, recidivist and would-be thief Yevgeny Prigozhin said that the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces "is proceeding at full speed, with Ukrainian units entering the flanks in the direction of Bakhmut".

Soldiers on the ground report that Ukrainian forces are moving in at least five different directions. Thanks to skilful leadership and concentrated artillery and aviation fire, the invaders are hitting the rear in the east near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, sweeping the Driskii supply points in Zaporizhia towards Melitopol, and in the Kherson area. There are more and more reports of not only regular units of the Russo-Fascists, but also Vagner marauders rushing from the battlefield in the east. Undoubtedly, a powerful storm is brewing, sweeping the mauradeurs out of the Ukrainian occupied territories.


The European Union will provide Ukraine with 1 million 155 mm projectiles, as well as more than 1 000 missiles. The EU has already trained more than 17,000 Ukrainian military personnel and plans to reach 30,000 by the end of 2023. "Defence is now a top priority because we are facing a war. It is therefore important that defence becomes more and more important in our foreign policy", said Josep Borrell. "If Russia wins the war, it will occupy Kiev and turn Ukraine into a second Belarus. Ukraine will cease to exist and Russian troops will come closer to the Polish border, our security will be reduced. This is what will happen", concluded the EU foreign policy chief.

How relatively quickly Europe's clerks learn from their own mistakes and the pain and blood of others. If the officials who can't see their noses and the view out of the villa window had thought so a few years ago, we would be living in peace and security today.

The UK has transferred several long-range Storm Shadow air-to-surface missiles to Ukraine. This type of long-range cruise missile, developed by the UK and France, can fly more than 500 km (the fastest exportable version, which can strike targets up to 290 km, will be handed over to Ukraine). So far, Ukraine does not have a large number of aircraft capable of carrying and launching it (Su-24 and Su-27).

American Abrams tanks will be delivered to Ukraine in early autumn, according to US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin.

Brief

The United States ambassador to South Africa has accused the country of secretly supplying arms to Russia, despite its officially neutral stance on the war in Ukraine. According to Reuben Brigety, the US is "convinced" that arms and ammunition were loaded on board a Russian ship that secretly docked at the Cape Town naval base in December.

The UN, Turkey and Ukraine stress the need to extend the vital grain deal, which expires next week. The agreement, which is due to expire on 18 May, establishes procedures to ensure the safety of ships carrying Ukrainian grain, fertiliser and other foodstuffs through a humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea.

Two senior Western military officials told CNN that Ukrainian troops have begun "preparatory" operations ahead of an expected counter-offensive against Russian forces.

US Secretary of State Blinken has promised to provide Ukraine with the necessary weapons for an offensive. "If there is a shortage, they will let us know and we will do our best to make up for it," he said.

The West has handed over 28 aircraft to Kyiv, 14 of which were provided by Poland, and 575 tanks, including 325 Polish tanks, the Polish mission to the EU said.

Lithuania

Passions flare after attacks on the monuments of partisan leader A. Ramanauskas-Vanagas. The situation can be seen and viewed from many angles, with many notes and reports on real and alleged threats. However, the fact is that collaborators and losers in the employ of Russia abound in our midst too. With impunity. They are working against our country by destroying it from within.

It is therefore strange to see a pro-Kremlin element openly, openly and courageously expressing itself on social networks. It only takes time and the will to pin the tail on it. And this is not the job of the DSS (the DSS does not prosecute), but of the police, prosecutors and courts. Why this is not being done is another question. Maybe there is a fear of something, maybe there is a lack of competence, a lack of a national attitude, maybe something else.

The law enforcement authorities have excellent guidelines and can in good conscience refer to Chapter XVI of the Criminal Code and apply Article 121 "Establishment and activities of unconstitutional groups or organisations".

It is possible to stop criminals undermining the sovereignty of our country today. All we need is the will and the desire.

This exclusive photo shows Romanian APR-40s (the Soviet counterparts of the Grad) lined up near Bakhmut.

Special thanks to our regular sponsor "DT Artelė" and the Lithuanian Brewers' Guild. The support of all of you is crucial for the continuation of our work: https://tinyurl.com/noriuparemti

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