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  • Writer's pictureAurimas Navys

UKRAINIAN ARMED FORCES NOT YET ABLE TO LAUNCH A COUNTER-OFFENSIVE (26 03 2023)

Political strategic level

The European Union's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell believes that Chinese leader Xi Jinping's trip to Moscow has made it less likely that Russian dictator Putin will use nuclear weapons.

Borrell explained to reporters that President Xi Jinping told the Russian leader "very, very clearly" that he should not deploy nuclear weapons. The EU's top diplomat referred to China's peace plan for Ukraine, which condemns the use of nuclear weapons. "What is important is that this visit reduces the risk of nuclear war, and the Chinese have made that clear. The President wants to reduce the risk of being associated with a Russian military invasion. They are not engaged in hostilities and there is no indication that they want to engage in hostilities", the EU politician insisted.

It is regrettable that European leaders are not yet aware of the double game being played by China to weaken the West at Russia's hands. Brussels officials do not understand the trap of lies and demagoguery that the dictators of the two countries have set in order to achieve their common goals. China is already indirectly involved in the war, supplying Russia with drones and drone parts for millions of dollars through intermediaries, but most politicians do not want to see this and see China as an economic partner. Living in a state of wishful thinking, where wishful thinking is accepted as reality, is deadly.

Immediately after Borello's speech, Putin spat in the face of him and the other EU leaders by announcing that he would deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. According to Putin, this is in response to the US, which for decades has deployed nuclear weapons on the territory of its European allies. "We have agreed that we will do the same - without violating our obligations, and I emphasise, without violating our international obligations on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons," explained Putin, a terrorist wanted for arrest. Until 1 July. Russia will complete the construction of a tactical nuclear weapons storage facility in Belarus, but will not hand over arms control to Minsk.

For these reasons, the US is far more rational in dealing with an aggressive China. President Joe Biden has stated that he does not take Russia lightly, and China is not yet openly supporting Russia because of the unity shown by the West. "So, I just want to put it in perspective, I don't take it lightly... what China and Russia are doing, and it could get much worse," Biden said.

Like it or not, the United States is the only player so far that cares about global politics and acts as a "world policeman", aware that every process is part of a global chain of events.

Meanwhile, Turkish President Erdogan thanked Russian Führer Putin on the phone for his "positive attitude" in extending the Black Sea grain deal. This is only natural. Erdogan is being pragmatic towards his country. Turkey is currently a buffer zone separating Europe from the influx of refugees. If millions of hungry people move into Africa, they will flood into Turkey first.

Hungary has openly stated that it will not support Ukraine's accession to the EU as long as 'Hungarian schools in Transcarpathia are in danger'. The Hungarian government recalls that "1 300 Hungarian schools and kindergartens are hosting Ukrainian refugees and 99 Hungarian educational and secondary schools in Ukraine are threatened with closure because of the Ukrainian language law".

Budapest has previously made it clear that it will "kick the can down the road" on Ukraine's future in the EU and NATO unless Kyiv makes concessions on the education law.

These sticks in the wheels are as minor (not philological) as the conflict over the double-var on Lithuanian passports. If not for the schools, Budapest would surely find another reason to please Moscow.

D. Medvedev, the Kremlin's clown and drunkard, encourages Russians to download pirated films. Medvedev suggests that this is to 'bankrupt' film production and distribution companies in the West. "Let it go through money. We have recently discussed this, that they should be deprived of some of the moral rights, in the legal sense, that they have here", summed up the poor product of the FSB directors.

The Mussolinians have always stolen ideas, objects, technology, looted and marauded. Already after the Second World War, the officers of the Driski, walking around with the shoes of the murdered Lithuanians removed, would cut down cherry trees for their wives, dressed as if in ball gowns with the stolen Lithuanians' underwear, so that they could pick the berries directly from the branches. The Mascots, like locusts, do not think about what to create or grow. They know only one thing - to plunder, steal, eat and destroy.

"After effective export restrictions, the EU and its allies want to focus on preventing sanctions circumvention. EU data shows that hundreds of goods, such as advanced semiconductors and other technologies used by Moscow on the battlefield in Ukraine, may be entering Russia through third countries," Bloomberg reports.

The EU is reportedly working to ensure that sanctions are not circumvented. As a result, Turkey has suspended the transit of sanctioned goods through its territory and Kazakhstan has promised to tighten controls on re-exports to Russia.

Operational level

The Ukrainian armed forces are unable to launch a counter-offensive due to a shortage of weapons, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. There is not yet enough ammunition, heavy equipment and fighter jets to go on the offensive.

What an unexpected statement in anticipation of a "powerful counter-attack"! We will no longer give figures, we will no longer talk about the balance of forces on the front line, we will no longer point the finger at our analyses. We are aware that they are depressing, that they do not give hope for a bright and victorious future, for a speedy end to the war, for the universal triumph of good over evil that awaits tomorrow.

However, it is imperative to emphasise here that the intense offensive can no longer be continued by Russia. Gradually, the classic situation is beginning to emerge for some, where the warring parties usually sit down at the negotiating table.

According to the UK Ministry of Defence, after the failure of the offensive in Bakhmut, Russian troops are returning to the defence lines. This could mean extreme attrition of Russian troops, according to a daily news briefing, which also noted that Ukrainian troops suffered heavy losses in the defence of the town.

It is believed that the Russian leadership is now likely to concentrate its efforts on Avdiivka, as well as on the Svatovo-Kremina line, where the aim is to stabilise the front line. This may indicate that Russia is generally returning to defensive action after the failure of the joint offensive.

On Saturday, Mr Prigozhin, the "owner" of the Wagner Group, stated that more than 5 000 prisoners had fulfilled their contracts with the Russian forces and had been pardoned.

Prigozhin's Moscow-funded "army" relied on recruiting convicts from Russian prisons, promising them a pardon and monetary compensation if they survived six months on the battlefield. Last week, a chef, a recidivist and an apartment thief said he was looking for 30 000 more fighters, and would focus on those who play sports in sports clubs.

Tactical level

Over the past day, the occupiers have carried out 34 air and 4 rocket strikes, and fired more than 70 objects from rocket systems.

The likelihood that Russia will carry out missile and air strikes throughout Ukraine remains high.

Ukrainian troops have repelled more than 85 attacks.

In Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhya region, the occupying Russian "administration" has issued a decree for the local population to obtain permits from the city commandant's office by 1 April to move around the temporarily occupied areas of Zaporizhzhya region.

Ukrainian military aviation carried out 11 strikes a day on Driski concentrations and the air defence forces shot down Orlan-10 and Superkam unmanned aerial vehicles.

Rocket and artillery units struck 3 checkpoints and 5 enemy concentrations of troops, weapons and military equipment.

In total, the Ukrainian defenders eliminated 660 drones, destroyed 15 tanks, 15 armoured personnel carriers, 8 artillery systems and other enemy combat equipment.

According to the Ukrainian Defence Forces, sixteen civilians were killed and fifty-nine injured by Russian shelling in eight regions of Ukraine.

Lithuania

We propose that the SCLC immediately ban the use of the word "shit" in Lithuanian because of the national, racial, sexual and faecal hatred it causes.

Since the word is associated with certain politicians, parties and public figures, they have lost the meaning of the generic noun and have become a tool for dividing and divisive divisions in the nation.

Moreover, those who say and defend the word 'shit' must be clearly identified as defenders of a specific person, that is, the country's Prime Minister, Mrs Šimonytė. Since the word has now become unambiguously associated with that person alone, it cannot be part of the language of the nation as a whole, as a sovereign, because the Prime Minister does not represent the majority of the nation.

Thus, a word that should not be spoken or written must be abolished and citizens who use it in their speech must be caned.

Screw you.

Russian recruits are pictured. Source apnews.com

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