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  • Writer's pictureAurimas Navys

WHAT CAN BE A REAL TURNING POINT IN WAR? (2023 05 26)

Geopolitical situation

Yesterday, Russia and Belarus signed an agreement legalising Moscow's deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of an ally, although control of the weapons remains with the Kremlin. It is not clear when the weapons will be deployed, but Führer Putin has previously announced that they will be deployed on 1 July. On July 1, the construction of storage facilities in Belarus will be completed.

It is also unclear how many nuclear weapons will be stored in Belarus. The US government believes that Russia has around 2 000 tactical nuclear weapons, including bombs that can be carried by aircraft, short-range missile warheads and artillery shells. Tactical nuclear weapons are designed to destroy enemy troops and weapons on the battlefield. They have a relatively short range and a much lower yield than the nuclear warheads in long-range strategic missiles, which can destroy entire cities.

"The deployment of non-strategic nuclear weapons is an effective response to the aggressive policies of countries that are unfriendly to us," said Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin during a meeting in Minsk with his Russian war criminal colleague Sergei Shoigu.

Chrenin also announced plans to "increase the combat potential of the regional Russian-Belarusian military grouping", including the transfer to Minsk of the Iskander-M missile system, which can carry a nuclear payload, and the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system.

All these nuclear manoeuvres can be seen as an information show designed to blackmail Western political leaders and intimidate European societies. As the picture of a tragic outcome to the turmoil in Ukraine becomes more and more vivid, nuclear weapons remain the only option, waving them around to prevent a complete collapse within Russia itself.

However, it would be a great mistake to continue to sleep soundly, creating paper light divisions and dreaming rosy dreams of 'the Russians will not really attack NATO'. Lithuania and the other Baltic countries need to see the real threat and prepare to meet it not sometime in seven or ten years' time, but tomorrow. All the means are necessary for this: A NATO-allied brigade in Lithuania now, and if the Germans are not available - ask the US, the British or the Canadians, stop making a fool of Russian intelligence immediately and start today to build up an organised reserve and to prepare the necessary supplies and a functioning civil protection system throughout the country, to raise the issue with NATO partners in Vilnius on the simplest possible way forward, with the prior, perhaps political, consent of all countries to deploy the NATO forces immediately, if the enemy should so much as flinch, to allow foreign volunteers to join the international legion now, in case NATO's political solution mechanism gets stuck in an "uncertain, vague, provocative local situation" and, above all, to make real plans for training civil resistance and for informing and training the public what to do in the event of Russian aggression. It would also be very healthy to revive the Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian brigade project and to start talking with Finland about joint action together. And also, if someone has not yet dropped the ball, to propose, by inviting the most interested allies already mentioned, the creation of a separate defence format for NATO's eastern flank - real, operational, deployed in the Baltic States, ready to strike back at the enemy in the teeth. Such a structure would only strengthen the Alliance as a whole and be the best of all possible deterrents. Russia and the war criminals in it understand only the language of force, and if someone is still holding white carnations in the hope of bringing terrorists and murderers to their senses, then by God, it is time to go to the dungeon.

Significant developments

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Thursday that European allies are working on a coordinated programme to train Ukrainian forces in the use of F-16 fighter jets, but the Pentagon chief warned that this would be an expensive and difficult task and not to hope for a magic solution to war. Austin said that the allies recognise that in addition to training, Ukraine will also need to be able to maintain and support the aircraft and have sufficient ammunition. He stressed that air defence systems remain the weapons that Ukraine needs most in its broader efforts to control airspace.

He was echoed by the US Army Chief (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff). "There are no magic bullets", said Mark Milley, adding that the provision of 10 F-16s could cost USD 2 billion, including maintenance.


"The Russians have a thousand fourth- and fifth-generation fighters, so if you're going to compete with Russia in the air, you're going to need a lot of fourth- and fifth-generation fighters." As a result, he said, the Allies had done the right thing by first providing Ukraine with a significant amount of integrated air defence to cover the battlespace. He said F-16s could be part of Ukraine's future air capability, but "it will take time to build an air force of the size, scope and scale that would be needed".

Unfortunately, this is the absolute truth, which we persist in repeating to you day after day. Talk of the breakthroughs in the war that the Ukrainians will achieve with a dozen fighter jets is, at the very least, self-deception and, on the battlefield, criminal irresponsibility. What is needed is an armaments complex, including the most modern, state-of-the-art equipment and machinery that the NATO countries have, hundreds of thousands of troops trained and armed from head to toe, peacekeeping bases for the NATO countries in Ukraine, and the complete isolation of Russia by cutting off all trade links and ending the circus of single-handedly propping up Ukraine by providing between EUR 1.5 billion and EUR 1.5 to EUR 2 billion. The other hand is feeding Russia, supplementing its budget with EUR 5.5 billion from our own accounts in the West.

"The Wagner marauders have begun to retreat from Bakhmut and hand over control to the Russian army. The recidivist Prigozhin has stated that the handover will be completed by 1 June, but this has not been confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defence. Ukraine's deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar, said on Thursday that regular Russian forces had replaced Wagner units in the suburbs, but Wagner fighters remained inside the city. She said Ukrainian forces were maintaining a foothold on the south-western outskirts of the former city.

Briefly

The German economy contracted unexpectedly in the first three months of this year and is now in its second quarter of contraction, which means that the EU's largest economy is in recession. Figures released on Thursday by the Federal Statistical Office show that Germany's gross domestic product, or GDP, fell by 0.3% between January and March.

Sweden's defence minister says his country is considering whether to allow Ukrainian pilots to test its JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets. So far, Sweden has ruled out sending Gripen fighters to Ukraine, saying they are needed for its territorial defence. However, Defence Minister Pål Jonsson told Swedish broadcaster TV4 that Sweden "welcomes" Ukraine's request to allow its pilots to test the Swedish aircraft. "This could mean, for example, test flights, using simulators, learning more about the extensive ground system that is part of the Gripen system," he said on Thursday.

Ukraine's parliament speaker on Thursday offered words of reconciliation over the mass killings during the Second World War, which have strained relations with neighbouring country and strategic ally Poland for 80 years. "Human life has the same value regardless of nationality, race, gender or religion," Ruslan Stefanczuk told Polish lawmakers. "Knowing this, we will cooperate with you, dear Polish friends, and we will accept the truth, no matter how uncompromising it may be." Stefanczuk's words struck a new tone and were in contrast to the Ukrainian ambassador's recent angry reaction to Poland's expectation of an apology.

Ukraine has released 106 more defenders from Russian captivity. Sixty-eight of them were considered missing.

In the vicinity of Zaporizhzhya, Ukrainian defenders hit two Russian Su-25 fighter jets. One was reported to have crashed near Melitopol and the second to have made an emergency landing.

The Spanish government will provide Ukraine with four more Leopard 2 tanks and a batch of M-113 armoured vehicles.

On the frontline, the intensity of the fighting is decreasing. There were 17 clashes in five areas of the frontline during the day, which is more than three times less than on any other day.

Lithuania

Trapped in the midst of political games not quite played out by political technologists, the non-partisan and invisible grey cardinals of the major parties are drawing up plans to break out of the maze of absurdity.

The principles declared to the electorate have been transformed into grotesque slogans in a meaningless theatre where the actors play themselves. The few spectators who, out of stupidity, lack of something to do, or following the example of the protagonists in Knut Hamsun's novels, patiently tried to absorb the language of the village politicians, have long since dispersed. Without the constant spit in the face of everyday life, the faithful shackles of the Sancha, and those who have withdrawn themselves from service.

One has to be a saint, with an inexhaustible source of courage and hope, or a hopeless romantic, to keep at least five of the Ten Great Commandments in this period of furniture and car deification.

Those three, for you and for ourselves, are our wishes today.

Pictured here are US Abrams tanks on their way to Ukraine.

Special thanks to our regular supporters DT Artelė and the Lithuanian Brewers Guild. Thank you to our readers for their support. It's not the amount of your support that matters, it's your attention and appreciation. Support link: https://tinyurl.com/noriuparemti

We offer active training: https://tinyurl.com/f352n3uw


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