Political strategic level
The media have been full of claims by "NATO intelligence" that the war in Ukraine will not end this year. Russia's immediate plans include the complete seizure of the Donbas, followed by Operation Kyiv. The conclusion is that the war is unlikely to end in 2023. The course and dynamics of the war will depend on the pace of the supply of weapons, which is currently in short supply on both sides.
The likelihood of the use of nuclear weapons is avoided.
Kyiv, in our view, is a more important strategic objective than the occupation of the destroyed cities, villages and steppes of the Donbas. However, Kyiv is not for the nose of the Drisks.
We have repeated many times what intelligence analysts are beginning to realise after a year of brutal large-scale military aggression. Unfortunately, this war will not end this year or next. We all need to realise that. It is a war of different worlds, of different ideologies. Putin has set himself the goal of dividing the West, of undermining its power, and he will pursue this goal to the end. It would be good to see it through. Even in a temporary peace, the Führer will continue to inspect the globe and plan a new invasion. The problem is not just Putin and his entourage. The fact that the terrorist and his bloody war are supported by millions of Russkij mir, not only in Russia but also in Lithuania, is shown by the flowers on the remains of the T-72 in Cathedral Square.
Similar provocations at Russian or Soviet symbols may increase, as the Ukrainians warned us about the activation of the Russian FSB's Sixth Agency in Lithuania as long as a month and a half ago. The aim could be to cause unrest, conflict or even bloodshed, so provocateurs should be approached with great restraint. Fix them, inform the special services. Let us understand that they are sent to provoke our rage and violence. Let us behave in such a way that this does not become an excuse for Moscow to draw the attention of its rabble and to activate additional elements of hybrid warfare.
Our predictions seem to be coming true, as Beijing is seriously considering supplying Moscow with lethal weapons support. This was confirmed by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during his visit to Astana. "We have warned China very clearly about the consequences and implications of providing such support", Blinken told a press conference in Kazakhstan. "We will not hesitate, for example, to impose sanctions on Chinese companies or individuals who have violated our sanctions or otherwise participated in supporting Russian hostilities."
The US warns China that it will not be able to occupy two chairs - trading with the West and at the same time waging war against the West in support of Russia. If China were to support Russia's war efforts, it would create a "serious problem" for US-China relations, as well as for China's relations with the rest of the world, Blinken said, probably applying these wishes to Kazakhstan and other Chinese satellites.
"China cannot have it both ways when it comes to Russian aggression in Ukraine. On the one hand, it cannot make peace offers and, on the other hand, actually fan the flames of the fire that Russia has started", Blinken rightly pointed out.
"Bild reports, on the basis of information from US and German government circles, that the West will try to persuade Kyiv to negotiate with Russia. Negotiations would be accepted if the Ukrainian army's offensive fails to achieve its objectives. "With the new weapons, they want to give Ukraine the opportunity to regain more of the occupied territories by autumn. If the counter-offensive fails, the pressure on Kyiv to negotiate with the Kremlin will intensify," the publication writes.
In our estimation, this is possible because the situation on the front line is poor. And the West will not solve the problems caused by arms supplies alone. It is necessary to send in our own troops. In fighter jets to start with.
The Kremlin assures us that Russia is ready to negotiate on Ukraine, but will not give up the annexed regions. Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov yesterday reiterated the Führer's position that Russia is open to negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine, but the new "territorial realities" cannot be ignored. Peskov told reporters that Russia would never give up its claims to the four regions of Ukraine that Moscow declared annexed last year after referendums.
"There are certain realities that have become an internal factor. I mean the new territories. The constitution of the Russian Federation exists and cannot be ignored. Russia will never be able to compromise on this, these are important realities", Peskov repeated the mantra of the collective putler.
The realities are that to the extent that Russia is breaking away from its neighbours' land, it is becoming de facto part of Russia. This new world order, based on marauding, raping children and wiping cities off the face of the earth, is being brought from the east to Western civilisation by a barbarian armed with a nuclear-armed sword, not content with the inexhaustible gold and oil resources of Siberia.
Whatever the case, it's time to get back on the ground and make sense of time and space. One can scream in anger, sitting safely at big tables hundreds and thousands of kilometres away from the front line, that one must 'fight to the end', that one must 'fight to the end', that one must 'not surrender an inch of land to the enemy' for another year, as one watches the Diasks continue to ravage and destroy Ukraine. However, without an immediate injection of modern weapons, and most likely troops, from the West, the vision of liberating the occupied territories is melting away with the spring snows.
The optimum pessimistic scenario for a temporary ceasefire would be that, after unsuccessful attacks by both sides, after senseless slaughter on the battlefield, Moscow mobilises by the millions and prepares to storm Kyiv. Since this takes time, negotiations with Kyiv are launched. Kyiv, supposedly under pressure from the West, sends Zelensky to meet Putin. They talk about the status of the seized territories, or rather their recognition.
Putin (as usual) lies and publicly states that recognising the annexed territories as part of Russia will make peace. The agreement document (with the participation of the US and Turkey) is amended to recognise the areas as temporarily occupied or annexed, which means that they are de facto transferred to Russia, but without any legal recognition of this.
Triumph in Moscow, fireworks, Führer worship events.
Meanwhile, Ukraine, within six months, becomes a member of the EU and NATO. The country is rapidly arming itself, recovering economically. In simple terms, it is going through a very similar process to the division of Germany, with the hope of regaining the occupied territories.
Once security has been secured, Ukraine's membership of NATO makes it possible to deploy NATO forward forces in the country. Intensive work is being done to further stifle Russia with sanctions. The West is also arming itself. A new twenty-first-century arms race is underway.
This goes on until either the Führer, who has finally lost his mind, announces a march on Kyiv, in which his disciples suffer total defeat, or a Mishustinian-type figure is put in the Tsar's chair in the Kremlin instead of the sick mythomaniac, and he begins negotiations with the West, offering the return of the occupied territories in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Ukraine reclaims Crimea and the Donbas.
The only downside to this scenario is the time it will take for the occupied territories to be 'cleansed' in every sense.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that "NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member of our Alliance, but at the same time this is a long-term perspective", he said. Stoltenberg said that "what we need now is for Ukraine to win as a sovereign independent state, and that is why we need to support Ukraine".
In the longer term, NATO troops will be based on Ukrainian territory.
Addressing the FSB, Putin urged Russians to be wary of traitors and security officials to strengthen counter-intelligence. "It is necessary to identify and stop the illegal activities of those who are trying to divide and weaken our society; using separatism, nationalism, neo-Nazism and xenophobia as weapons. <...> And now, of course, the attempts are most active. Attempts to activate all this rubbish on our soil", said the pet of the terrorist Dzerzhinsky's KGB.
Putin said that Russian security agencies should be established in the annexed regions of Ukraine. And how else - without oprichnina, no way.
In more than a year of terrorist Russian warfare in Ukraine, 8 101 civilians have been killed and 4 479 wounded. Among the civilians killed were 3 584 men, 2 127 women, 256 boys, 201 girls; 31 children and 1 902 adults whose sex was not identified.
Operational level
The tight situation at Bakhmut.
Yesterday, Volodymyr Zelensky held a meeting of the General Staff to discuss with the military the operational situation and the likely actions of the Russian occupiers in the near future. They discussed the state of the supply of ammunition and equipment to the defence forces, the progress of training of Ukrainian troops abroad, and in particular the needs of the forces.
Although the situation on the Eastern Front was not reported, it is, to our knowledge, very complex. "Wagner's hit squads are already roaming the city centre, while Ukrainian troops, under fire from three sides, find themselves almost completely surrounded. However, there is no permission to retreat.
The Russians are pressing from the flanks, and if the ring is closed, a repeat of the Ilovaisk scenario is possible. The only remaining road into the town, the Bakhmut-Kostantynivka road, is under such heavy shelling that the troops are no longer supported. This time we will allow ourselves to disagree with the chosen tactic of defending to the last drop of blood. Ukrainian military commanders should not fight in accordance with the Gerasimov School doctrine.
However, let us hope that Zaluzhny and his commanders know what they are doing and will save the lives of their troops, or perhaps launch a surprise counter-attack.
According to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the loss of Russian troops in the war has almost reached the handsome figure of 150 000.
Despite the moderate storm, the number of Russian ships in the Black Sea grouping has increased. There are now 17 ships, including five missile carriers, including two submarines. The total Calibre salvo can reach up to 32 missiles.
The Russians are not stopping aerial reconnaissance, which means that missile strikes cannot be ruled out in the near future.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Ukrainian army has the option of launching a counter-offensive in Zaporizhzhya and trying to cut off occupied Crimea from mainland Russia. It is noted that the Ukrainian army continues to respond to Western concerns about Ukraine's ability to liberate the occupied territories. Vadym Skibicki, Deputy Head of the Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, stated that Ukrainian troops will be ready for a counter-offensive in spring 2023 and that Ukraine's strategic objective is to split the Russian front line between Crimea and the Russian mainland.
We are awaiting a crushing strike by the Ukrainian Cossacks on the cavemen's moorings.
The Pentagon does not expect Russia to be able to make any significant territorial gains in Ukraine in the near future, and has described the situation on the front line as 'a tedious chore'. According to US defence spokesman Kahl, there is no reason to expect a Russian breakthrough in Ukraine, and that the Kremlin "will not make any significant territorial gains in the next year or in the near future", and listed the transfer of the planes as not being among their top three priorities.
Yes, of course, there are different types of weapons and different priorities. I wonder where human life ranks in the gradation of these priorities, looking at the boringly unchanging front line on the Mac's screen?
Tactical level
Ukrainian units repelled 85 Russian attacks in the directions of Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut and Shakhtarsk.
During the previous day, the Russian occupiers carried out 2 missile and 12 air strikes, including 2 Shahed-136s. Both were shot down by Ukrainian troops. The occupiers carried out 68 shelling attacks with rocket-propelled grenades. Civilians were injured.
The threat level of missile strikes remains high throughout Ukraine.
The situation is most difficult in Bakhmut. There, the occupiers are targeting Ukrainians with all types of fire systems with high intensity, and the incursion of the Walkouts is supported by aviation. The Russians are advancing in small groups of up to 10 soldiers, and as they gain a foothold, the main forces close in.
In the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson directions, the occupiers are defending themselves, but in some areas they are trying to go on the offensive.
There are reports of evacuations of some Russian citizens from occupied Crimea. Family members of Russian occupiers stationed in Perevalna are being transported home to Russia.
Over the past day, Ukrainian aviation has struck 11 strikes on occupier meat concentration areas, while missile units have struck 9 occupier concentration areas, a weapons and military equipment concentration position, as well as 2 anti-aircraft missile complex positions.
Russia has problems behind the scenes. Explosions and a fire are reported near a Russian air base in Yeiisk, Krasnodar Krai.
Yesterday there was also a fire at a large oil plant at Tuapse in the south of the country near Sochi. Neither the Ukrainian nor the Russian authorities have confirmed that it was an attack, but it is reported that drones have been spotted near the oil refinery, which is run by the government-controlled oil giant Rosneft.
A 16-year-old saboteur, a gymnast from St Petersburg, was arrested last night after throwing Molotov cocktails at the door of the military registration and conscription service in Kirovsk.
In the photo, an Azov soldier is ready to send the invaders to visit Kobzon in hell.
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