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  • Writer's pictureAurimas Navys


Political strategic level
Yesterday, at a meeting of the Military Committee, NATO's Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana said that there is no indication that the Putin regime is going to end the war against Ukraine. Therefore, 2023 will be a difficult year for NATO, which must be ready to support Ukraine for a long time.
"Putin is preparing for a long-term war. He has already mobilised more than 200 000 additional troops, many of whom are currently undergoing training. He has increased military production and is trying to get more weapons from other authoritarian regimes, including Iran. Most importantly, however, there is no sign that Putin has changed his objectives. We must therefore be prepared for a long confrontation. 2023 will be a difficult year. We must support Ukraine as much as necessary," he said.
NATO will therefore be ready to respond to threats from all sides, increasing combat capability on the eastern flank to the level of brigades, building up a high readiness force, reinforcing military capabilities and improving the command and control system. The first priority is to increase defence spending, with a minimum threshold of 2%. The second is to strengthen the capabilities of the defence industry, which is essential to complement the arsenals of NATO countries and to assist Ukraine and ensure the effectiveness of deterrence and defence policy.
"We are learning the lessons of this war. We also need to be prepared for possible wars in the future, to continue NATO's transformation in the digital age. Our Alliance must maintain the military capabilities and capacities to protect our allies from all challenges that arise today and may arise tomorrow, including operations in multiple theatres. It is important to be ready for new technologies, including artificial intelligence and big data," stressed NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana.
Well... after two world wars, we are still learning. We are also learning from this war, which shows that we have not learnt from the last one, and we are totally unprepared for the last one. It is very good that the illusion has evaporated that Putin is about to die, he will be overthrown, something will happen to him (something!) and there will be peace again. Hope evaporated like a camphor and the Western allies finally began to realise that the Ukrainians would probably have to fight for years. With a horde of half, one and a half or five million.
The talk of fighting to a "Ukrainian victory" has died down, because it is probably clear to everyone that there will be no real victory, no Russian surrender. A relative victory can be expected when all the Russians have been expelled from all the territories occupied by Ukraine. However, let us be very blunt here too: is it plausible to push the army of the Marauders over the Ukrainian border, imagining that all the Russians will then put their hands up, pack up their S-300s, S-400s and other 'calibre', turn around and run away, and that the Ukrainians will then drive the Russians up to Kyiv and take Moscow?
On the anniversary of the invasion, there is an awakening that this is probably not possible and that Putin's Russia will not surrender and will not lay down its arms in any case. Even if the Russian army is pushed back to the border, military action will continue with the same intensity, with cities being destroyed and civilians killed in the same way.
We are waiting for the decision-makers to wake up to the fact that victory against terrorist Russia is only possible with direct Western intervention. Troops on the ground and/or the admission of Ukraine to NATO without any conditions now is the only quick way.
Any special tribunal to deal with Russia's war crimes in Ukraine must have sufficient international support to prosecute Russia's political and military leaders.
"As far as accountability for the crime of aggression is concerned, Russian leaders cannot currently be held accountable... in any international jurisdiction", says European Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders. The International Criminal Court in The Hague has the power to prosecute war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide, but Reynders says it cannot impose penalties on Russian officials.
"A tribunal set up to prosecute individuals for crimes of aggression should be sufficiently international in nature to be able to legally waive immunities and act on behalf of the international community," the official said.
Well... The West has been thundering at the Kremlin for a year over the Hague tribunal, which appears to be incapacitated in relation to Russian war criminals. Lack of internationalism or something else. Confusing directives, complicated procedures, long, bureaucratic mechanisms for the EU and individual large countries to act, are today a major obstacle to resistance to the Kremlin, and certainly an incentive for the Russians to act more aggressively.
Kremlin dictator Putler said that Russia is "trying to end this war" with Ukraine. Meeting with World War II veterans, Putler explained that the aim of the "operation" was "to protect our people living in those territories". "These are our historical territories, as I said, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. I am not going to judge now, this is not the time or the place. But in any case, Russia has come to terms with this event. However, we could not fail to react to what followed the 'coup d'état'.
Putin did not bypass the subject of the Second World War. The mythomaniac terrorist claimed that many European countries had committed crimes on the Leningrad Front, but that "in the past, Russia had kept quiet about it so as not to damage relations with other countries".
Ward No 5. Enclose by barbed wire with no access to the outside.
Speaking to workers at a plant in St Petersburg that produces air defence systems, Putin told anecdotes that the overall production of military equipment was increasing and that demand was growing because of the operation in Ukraine. "As for the final result and the victory that is inevitable, there are several things. ... It is the unity and focus of the Russian and multinational Russian people, the courage and heroism of our fighters ... and, of course, the work of the military-industrial complex and factories like yours and people like you. Victory is assured. I have no doubt of that," the loser quipped.
Mordor's Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Moscow would be forced to take unnamed measures on its borders if Finland joined the NATO military alliance. Lavrov said that Finland and Russia had long enjoyed friendly relations, but that this had changed and Russia would have to take "appropriate measures on our borders" if Finland, with which it shares a 1 300 km border, became a NATO member.
We are not waiting for Russia to use force against any NATO country.
Speaking at a press conference in Moscow, Lavrov reiterated his call for NATO to withdraw its "military infrastructure" from Ukraine and other countries close to Russia's borders. According to Lavrov, the US was building a coalition of European countries to resolve the "Russia issue" by using Ukraine as a proxy, in the same way that Adolf Hitler sought a "final solution" to exterminate the Jews of Europe.
Lavrov continued the delusions by declaring that the US was to blame for the conflict in Ukraine because it had launched a "hybrid war" against Moscow. The United States had prepared the ground for the conflict in Ukraine.
We missed his claims that the US was preparing to eradicate the Russians by attacking them with millions of ducks infected with the incurable trident virus. The birds were programmed to diarrhoea exclusively on Russian citizens.
Operational level
The battle for resources continues.
Wesley Clark, former NATO commander in Europe, says the US should significantly increase its military aid after the bloody terrorist attack in Dnipro. Clark calls on Ukraine's partners to increase military aid and provide more tanks, and to take more seriously the issue of military aid to Kyiv, which continues to lose its people. According to the military officer, Ukraine now needs hundreds of tanks instead of dozens of fighting vehicles to counter Russian aggression.
"It is great that we will give them ten tanks from the UK. Ten tanks? Ukraine needs 300 or 500 tanks. It's great that we are trying to send them a few more howitzers. That is not enough. We need to take this seriously," Clarke said.
He called on Ukraine's partners to increase military aid and to transfer more tanks and artillery, amid worrying news that Führer Putin is about to announce another wave of mobilisation.
The former NATO official is right. Dozens of tanks are symbolic support and more of a moral plus than real aid. Unfortunately, with such support, effective defence is difficult and it is premature to talk about offence.
However, support is slowly moving.
Canadian Defence Minister Anita Anand has announced that 200 more Senator armoured vehicles will be transferred to Ukraine. This aid is valued at more than $90 million and is part of the additional $500 million in military aid to Ukraine announced by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in November 2022.
The US will hand over 300 000 artillery shells stored in Israel to Ukraine, reports The New York Times. According to the newspaper's sources, half of the projectiles have already been sent to Europe and are expected to be delivered to Ukraine via Poland. It should be noted that the shells destined for the Ukrainian armed forces have been stored in two US warehouses established in Israel after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war for use by the US military in Middle East conflicts.
But why is the West holding back the supply of tanks so much?
Although tanks have been considered obsolete in some Western countries because of their vulnerability, today they are one of the main means of attack. The Russian T-72 and T-80 tanks have proved completely powerless against the high-precision portable Western anti-tank weapons such as the Javelin.
Although tanks have been considered obsolete in some western countries because of their vulnerability, today they are one of the main means of offence. The Russian T-72 and T-80 tanks have proved completely powerless against high-precision, man-portable Western anti-tank weapons such as the Javelin.
Meanwhile, Western tanks were developed with the very purpose of defeating Russian tanks. With jet armour, powerful main guns, manoeuvrability and speed, they are designed to survive in combat and ensure the safety of their crews. Ukraine needs hundreds of them if its army is to launch an offensive to recapture first the south and then the rest of the country.
The latest generation of tanks is vital for Ukraine if it wants to punch holes in Russia's defensive lines and regain occupied territories. Southern Ukraine is flat and ideal for tank operations. Here, Russia has already set up a series of fortifications to stop the Ukrainian offensive.
However, a tank or many tanks in battle is not everything. Interaction with other types of troops - artillery, aviation, air defence - is essential. The interplay between tanks and infantry fighting vehicles for transporting troops to the hot spots of battle, in combination with artillery and air support, especially unmanned aerial vehicles, is a very effective fist.
That is why the United States is training senior Ukrainian officers for joint offensive operations, using existing weapons and complementary capabilities to ensure victory.
At the same time, it is essential to ensure that a repair and supply system is in place and operational in Ukraine, because the equipment needs spare parts and repair teams. A broken armoured vehicle is an expensive ironclad. Its repair requires spare parts, facilities and specialists.
Thus, the supply of modern, heavy Western armaments is one part of the military aid to Ukraine. It will not work without all of the above segments.
For a successful offensive, Ukraine needs not only training, but also equipment and equipment, and the ability to ensure their effective interaction. Large quantities of artillery, tanks, armoured vehicles, fuel, ammunition and other military equipment and ammunition and, most importantly, troops need to be amassed and prepared for an attack in such a way that they cannot be detected. And when the decisive battle begins, they are quickly rotated, repaired and replaced.
Tactical level
Over the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defence Forces have repelled attacks by the invaders in all directions. Russian terrorists launched 25 air strikes and more than 85 volley rocket attacks.
Fighting is reported to be continuing on the outskirts of Soledar.
Soldiers of the Belarusian Volunteer Regiment, named after Konstantin Kalinauskas, fought the Russian invaders near Bakhmut yesterday and took their positions. According to the Belarusian Volunteers, the bodies of Ukrainian soldiers who had been killed in the past were found in the retaken positions. Soldiers had their boots removed and their clothes taken off.
Over the past day, Ukrainian aviation has struck 13 enemy positions and 3 positions of the occupying forces' anti-missile complexes.
An enemy Ka-52 helicopter and a Merlin-VR unmanned aerial vehicle were shot down.
Rocket and artillery units of the Ukrainian Defence Forces struck 3 invader checkpoints, 5 live fire centres, 1 ammunition depot and 2 other important enemy objects.
Photo: Soledar from the occupant positions.
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