WILL THE KREMLIN DARE TO ATTACK LVIV? (2023 01 15)
Political strategic level
The British authorities have officially confirmed the transfer of a squadron of Challenger 2 tanks (up to 13 tanks) to Ukraine. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak informed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of this yesterday during a conversation. The UK intends to reinforce Ukraine's defence with additional artillery systems.
The Russian Embassy reacted to this move by London and stated that the UK tanks were escalating the conflict. "Bringing tanks to the conflict zone, far from meaning a cessation of hostilities, will only intensify the fighting and cause more casualties, including civilian casualties," the terrorist state said in a statement.
Polish President Andrzej Duda said his country would provide Ukraine with one company of Leopard tanks (about 15 tanks). Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is due to discuss the supply of Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine in Berlin next Monday. He said he had "no idea" whether he would be able to change the position of Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine.
What is the German Chancellor afraid of? Is he suffering from Schröder's syndrome?
Ibrahim Kalin, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's foreign policy adviser, said it was unlikely that the warring sides would be ready to conclude a "comprehensive peace agreement" in the coming months, but he said that the cost of the brutal fighting could quickly lead them to change their minds and agree to a local ceasefire in certain parts of the war zone.
"Turkey is ready to seek local ceasefires and small local de–escalations," Mr Kalin told reporters. "Neither side is capable of winning the war militarily on the ground."
The desperate musings of a misguided politician, probably influenced by the Kremlin's "wimps", who seek to inject hope and thus confusion into the war.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, an alcoholic, accused Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of shameful obedience to the United States and suggested that he ritually cut out his own intestines. In other words, to commit harakiri.
The "suggestion" followed a meeting between Mr Kishida and US President Joe Biden, after which both leaders declared that any use of nuclear weapons by Russia in Ukraine would be an act of "hostility against humanity".
Medvedev is a brain–dead weakling who must be taken very seriously. He has taken the place of the clown Zhirinovsky and is now playing the role of the world's scarecrow, whose task is to intimidate, to mobilise, to test. In testing the West, Zhirinovsky repeatedly named Moscow's plans, to which no one reacted in time and seriously.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, wants to visit the United Nations and speak at a high–level meeting of the General Assembly on the eve of the anniversary of the Russian invasion on 24 February.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the visit may not take place because Russia is planning a very serious offensive in February.
Russia is preparing for a long war.
Some experts say that the Russians currently have around 600,000 troops mobilised for a new wave of invasion. According to the Russian Minister of Terror Shoigu, the country intends to mobilise up to 1.5 million live meat.
This is a very serious challenge for both Ukraine and its allies, because every single one of the drisks, even poorly armed ones, is potentially dangerous and requires military ammunition – at least one bullet – to kill it.
The Russian troops, who have so far been killing in large numbers on the outskirts of Soledar and Bakhmut, have changed their battle tactics and are now attacking in groups of up to 10 troops, supported by one or more tanks. Masses of mobilised skirmishers are also being sent to unbalance the Ukrainian defences.
It sounds cruel, but the Kremlin equates one of its conscripts' lives to one bullet.
Andrei Illarionov, Putin's former economic adviser, says Moscow is preparing for a new major war, which could happen any day. According to Illarionov, the Kremlin is preparing a surprise strike from Belarus to the Lviv region, with the intention of seizing this key strategic logistics hub. It is also reportedly planning to launch an offensive west of Odessa in order to cut off Moldova as a southern arms supplier and, if successful, to try to enter Chisinau.
This plan has been in the making since September and was approved on 15 December. This does not mean that Russia will be successful in a possible military operation, but the aim is to stop and paralyse the supply of allied arms, especially the new heavy weapons that are to be brought into Ukraine.
We believe that such a Putin–Gerasimov plan is possible, and that Operation Lviv, distracted by the battles of Bakhmut or Kyiv, is operationally rational from the point of view of mordor.
Cut off from the supply of weapons, the Ukrainian army would be in a difficult situation, would not receive the weapons that are currently on the move and that are planned, and would have to face an influx of more than a million Waltons in the near future.
Although neither the US nor NATO announces any threats, the deployment of large amounts of US combat equipment to Poland and Lithuania indicates that preparations are being made for potentially very serious events. And the dispatch of three reconnaissance planes to Romania is a clear sign of monitoring the southern threat.
Russian military action in western Ukraine, on NATO's eastern borders, would lead to even greater tensions and mobilisation of forces. If the Kremlin's stooges were to embark on an offensive operation in Lviv and western Ukraine, it would create tensions and the risk of direct conflict with NATO.
This would be the fulfilment of our 'plan' to involve the Kremlin in a direct confrontation with the West.
However, Moscow will try to avoid a confrontation with NATO in every possible way, and will keep the nuclear issue off the table so that the West does not take drastic decisions.
The red lines are defined at this stage.
It is a pity. In our view, both the US and the other NATO countries could and should send a certain, albeit limited, military contingent to Ukraine to protect their own diplomats, politicians and the strategic facilities that ensure their work. This is a practice that has been applied in a number of countries, and it is time to extend it to Ukraine. NATO troops in Ukraine would be a difficult puzzle for the generals of Mordor to solve.
Mikhail Podoliak, an adviser to the head of the Ukrainian president's office, says that Putin is preparing massive strikes on Ukraine purely out of a "sense of magic".
Hardly. Rather, it is Surovikin's task to reduce Ukraine's air defence capability.
It is said that battles are still being fought in Soledar and that Ukrainian troops are "outmaneuvering" elite Russian and Wagner units there. The fighting over Soledar is said to have exposed differences between the Wagner Group and the Kremlin. Foreign and domestic media say that there have been differences since the Wagner Group became involved in the Syrian conflict, but that the group's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has gone from being a "shadowy figure" to an outspoken critic of the defence ministry.
We do not believe in such tales. There is and can be no competition between the Ministry of Defence and Wagner, which it funds. They are criminal units of the same military structure, fed by the same budget line. And they are not led by a chef, but by a general.
Russia is mobilising an air force in Belarus under the guise of joint exercises, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. The threat of missile and air strikes and kamikaze drones against Ukraine from Belarusian territory is growing.
In Moscow, an S–400 division with an active radar station was unexpectedly deployed between Losiny Ostrov and Sokolniki. In addition, a number of air defence complexes have been deployed in the Moscow suburbs.
Such a demonstration of equipment can have two purposes: defensive and psychological, preparing the population for the obvious threat and war with the West. Millions of Muscovites may have to go into hiding to escape the "Western missiles".
Given the barking of Kremlin propagandists that in Europe, following the energy and food crisis, people are eating dog food and women are turning en masse to the 'trade' of prostitution, it is clear that the demagogy of the Brezhnev–Andropov era is being used to fool the people behind the Iron Curtain. The Kremlin intends to pull back that curtain in the near future.
Thank God we are now on the other side of the Iron Curtain.
Meanwhile, Ukraine, unless NATO or other Western countries intervene, is, according to our pessimistic forecasts, facing a long year of debilitating war, which will require many more casualties than it has so far. The collective Putin is entering a phase of long–term war, which, however painful or unwilling to admit, is his only option for survival. And he is well aware of this.
At the tactical level
Russia has launched yet another massive missile attack on Ukrainian cities. The terrorist targets were Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Kryvy Rih, Dnipro, Vinnytsia, Ladzhyn, Burshtyn, Khmelnytsky and other cities.
In Dnipro, the Russians struck a multi–storey building, killing 30 people, including a child, and injuring more than 70.
According to the Mayor of Dnipro, Boris Filatov, the missile attack completely cut off electricity and other vital support systems in the entire city area.
After 16:15, a power plant in the Lviv region was hit, as well as a critical infrastructure facility in the Kharkiv region, which disrupted the region's electricity supply.
This was preceded by attacks on Kyiv and other cities in the morning.
The occupiers launched two mass rocket attacks in succession.
The Russian terrorists are doing everything they can to make their attacks unexpected and unexpected, and to make the speculations of the political wingnuts about the timing and dynamics of the mass missile strikes meaningless.
In total, the Russian fascists have launched 57 missile strikes, 3 air strikes and 69 salvo missile attacks in the past day.
The terrorists used S–300/S–400 anti–aircraft missiles in their missile strikes against Kyiv. The Russians also fired 41 air and sea base cruise missiles and air–launched cruise missiles, which are high–precision weapons. The Ukrainian Defence Forces destroyed 26 missiles.
The Drisks have not abandoned their intention to fully occupy the Donetsk region and are focusing their efforts on offensive actions in the direction of Bakhmut.
During the past day, Ukrainian Defence Forces units have repelled attacks by the occupiers in all directions.
The occupier continues to suffer heavy daily losses of manpower.
We must realise that even huge sacrifices in the millions will not stop the blue advance, and that after the blows that bring down buildings and kill children, there is laughter and champagne in the Kremlin.
Ukrainian military aviation has struck 5 strikes on occupiers' sites in the past day. Several Orlan–10 drones were shot down.
Ukrainian missile and artillery units hit 2 checkpoints, 9 live fire and military equipment centres, an ammunition depot and an enemy radio–electronic warfare station.
Photo: British Challenger–2 tank, businessinsider.com
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