WILL THE LEAKED SECRET DOCUMENTS CHANGE THE (COUNTER)ATTACK PLANS? (2023 04 11)
Political strategic level
The Ukrainian Parliament calls on NATO to take all necessary steps to admit Ukraine as a full member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. The appeal to NATO member states, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly for Ukraine's membership of the organisation was supported by 352 deputies of the Verkhovna Rada.
The sooner Ukraine joins NATO, the sooner the war will end. However, without controlling its borders, a country cannot be a member of the alliance. Hence the need for a swift, crushing victory. What that victory should look like is not yet clearly defined by Kyiv, Washington or Brussels. Many imagine that victory means driving the Russian hordes out of Ukrainian territory. Let us believe that this will happen sooner or later. It all depends on the expected spring (counter-)attack on Ukraine.
Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, says that the counter-offensive is taking place on a daily basis and that the daily media hype on this subject is not good for the Ukrainian armed forces.
Danilov is right. Too high expectations and too small a victory can be disappointing. Ukraine is fighting every day and holding back a powerful enemy. A spring (counter-)offensive can deal a major blow to the occupier, but not necessarily a decisive one. A dozen fighter jets, 250 Western tanks are a fist that can win a battle, but may not be enough for a full-scale attack. Of course, the Secretary of State is playing a trick by saying that the counter-attack is already under way, even though neither the Leopards nor the Bradleys have yet appeared on the scene of battle.
The confusion in Russia and in the world is caused by allegedly leaked "secret Pentagon documents", which allegedly forced Ukraine to change its military plans. The documents are said to reveal US sources in the Russian defence ministry, which may now be made public. According to CNN, the secret reports reveal shortcomings in Ukraine's weaponry, air defence, battalion numbers and readiness for a counter-attack.
The leaked documents are being leaked by Kremlin analysts and military experts. The material suggests that at the beginning of March both armies were in a poor state and both sides were operating with relatively small forces. The Russian armed forces had about 140 000 more men on the front line than Ukraine. Nine Ukrainian brigades were reportedly to be trained and equipped by Western countries for the offensive, and another three by Ukraine itself. All the brigades are newly created units. The weak composition of the "strike corps" in terms of the number of brigades and their personnel, which is less than 40 000, is noted.
The documents state that in April, Ukraine's air defences will be without ammunition, allowing the Russian air force to gain air superiority, being able to strike both on the front line and deep inside the Ukrainian defence. It is mentioned that the Ukrainian armed forces have been severely lacking ammunition for Western artillery. Smart bomb devices were ineffective, it says.
The confused Russians do not know whether to believe the "leaked documents" or not. Is this the truth, or is it deliberate disinformation?
All we will say is that misleading the adversary, by creating confusion in his plans and thinking, by introducing an element of uncertainty and nervous anticipation, unbalances, confuses, debilitates and causes him to make the wrong decisions. Yes, this is part and parcel of a psychological military operation. We would add that we have not read anything in the 'leaked documents' that we do not know in principle. "There is an interesting aspect of the 'intelligence report' that explains why the US does not want to give Ukraine the long-range keys. It is said that such strikes would be used by China deep inside Russia, turning NATO into an aggressor and increasing aid to Russia.
The success of the psychological operation has been confirmed by the fact that the US has unofficially declared some of the documents to be "real" and the US Department of Justice has opened an investigation into the leaking of allegedly apparently secret military documents. A message is also being circulated about the frustration of Ukrainian officials at the US spying on Volodymyr Zelensky. A 'US intelligence' report allegedly states that at the end of February, Zelensky 'proposed to strike the Russian army's deployment sites in the Rostov region' using unmanned aerial vehicles because Ukraine does not have long-range weapons.
Adding to the information confusion, Mikhail Podoliak, an advisor to the Head of the Ukrainian President's Office, stated on Telegram that he considers the documents circulated to be inauthentic, "have nothing to do with Ukraine's real plans", and are based on a "large amount of fictitious information" circulated by Russia itself.
The information operation is proceeding according to plan. We applaud.
A US destroyer conducts a demarche near a Chinese military base. The United States was reacting to large-scale Chinese military exercises around Taiwan involving naval, air and missile forces. "The USS Milius passed close to the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, which China considers to be its sovereign territory. "These operations demonstrate that the United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law permits, regardless of the location of excessive maritime claims and regardless of current events," the US statement said.
Today, the United States and the Philippines launched Balikatan, the largest annual military exercise of all time, involving more than 17 000 troops: around 12 200 Americans, 5 400 Filipinos, as well as troops from Australia and other countries.
In the current geopolitical context, we see US activity on China's borders as very positive. We are aware that there are those who believe that neither the Russia-Ukraine war nor, even more so, the possible conflict over Taiwan have any impact on Lithuania. Unfortunately, we have to realise that chaining the Chinese dragon is also chaining Moscow's rat tail.
Dmitry Peskov, the mouthpiece of the Russian dictator, said that Russia was continuing military operations on Easter Sunday because 'no one has come forward with a preliminary initiative'.
Nobody expects anything else from the marauders, murderers and child rapists.
Putin has used up his time limit and is now trying to "stretch the rubber". The bunker rat wants the West to get tired of Ukraine and not take decisive action. The black magic worshippers in the Kremlin are hoping that perhaps, in time, a good card will fall: China will come to the rescue, a new President will be elected in the United States, a civil war will break out in Ukraine. It is said that Putin has been preparing for this invasion for 20 years, so it would be naive to think that he would abandon his plans in two or three years.
Natalia Humeniuk, head of the Joint Coordination Press Centre of the Ukrainian Southern Defence Forces, warns that the Russians may use a new type of unmanned aerial vehicle in Ukraine and that the enemy should not be underestimated. The occupiers' actions in the skies are a sign that they are preparing for an attack. She also reported on the bloody tactics of the Russians, who are now attaching grenades to their UAVs. The aim of the enemy's actions, she said, is to inflict more casualties in Ukraine.
The most common place for the invaders to launch such drones is into crowds of people, where Ukrainians gather to receive humanitarian aid.
Lieutenant General Andrei Demin of terrorist Russia said that the Russian air defence forces have faced many challenges as a result of the Ukrainian strikes and need to be upgraded. He said that Russia's defences also needed to be strengthened and upgraded as Finland, which has a 1 300 km border with Russia, had joined NATO.
Russia has been 'upgrading' its air and naval forces for ten years. The Kuzia aircraft carrier has become a laughing stock, and the T-54/55 tanks from the Sralin era being towed to the front line show Russia's complete technological backwardness.
Russian terrorists launched 39 air and 7 missile strikes, mostly on the city of Kramatorsk.
The Russian Federation continues to wage war in the tradition of the Middle Ages, killing civilians and destroying neighbouring towns.
The occupiers dismissed the staff of the hospital in the town of Snezhin in the Donetsk region for failing to take out Russian passports. Russian troops continue to harass the population of the occupied areas, searching their homes for partisans.
Ukrainian forces are destroying the Horde's manpower and other resources. An enemy Mi-24 helicopter is shot down.
Pyst! - A spring rake hits the forehead as the last year's leaves fall. The stroke of the historical rake is an attempt to remind us of the historical mistakes our grandparents endured before the war.
When our so-called political elites 'shit themselves'; when they carry out pointless tax 'reforms' that oppress the people; when they look for 'communists and carpetbaggers' in their ranks for public ridicule, hiding the real ones; taunting the "chatterbots", the "vatniks", who are guilty of nothing more than asking questions; burning at the stake parties "filled" with child abusers, the Russian fifth column silently rubs its hands together, glad that we are preparing for an external war by mowing each other down.
We are divided, but we should be united around what unites us. Forget the wrongs, remember the victories we have won together, be tolerant of what makes us all stronger, regardless of our different views.
We are a unique nation that has risen from the ashes and nothingness of a nation whose state was wiped off the world map not long ago. The name of Lithuania and the state were resurrected by our great-grandparents, who peeled off the hump and drove the Bolsheviks, the Bermontists, the Germans and the Poles out of the homeland.
You and I, you and we, are the masters of our country, and we can choose our government freely and not wait for someone else to impose it on us. A government that respects and serves every citizen, not one that tells them what to do like a despised slave.
You are the owners of your neighbourhood, city, village, street, house, forest, yard, park, bench and flowerbed. This is your life, the life that our country's green men and women, our brothers of the forest, have laid down their heads for, and no one has the right to take it away from you.
Photo: Mobile Air Defence Group of the 28th Brigade of Ukraine on a combat mission.
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