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  • Writer's pictureAurimas Navys


Political strategic level

Disagreements between Kiev and Washington are growing over the course of the war and the scenario of its end. The White House is said to want Ukraine to concentrate its forces on a counter-offensive, without keeping Bakhmut pinned down. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military leadership explained yesterday that the defence of Bakhmut allows the concentrated occupation forces to inflict heavy losses, reducing Russian offensive potential and power in other directions. On this front, the occupiers are losing between 600 and 700 of their so-called soldiers every day. This allows the Russian military forces to be concentrated in one place.

However, in the West it is doubtful whether the Ukrainians will be able to go on a decisive counter-offensive against the enemy. The supply of frontline weapons to Ukraine is still limited. Michael McCaul, a member of the House of Representatives, criticises Washington's policy: "Is it just giving them enough to survive, not to win? I don't see a win-win policy now, and if there isn't one, what do we do?"

Although US intelligence has found no evidence that the Ukrainian authorities were involved in the sabotage of the pipelines, the Biden administration is "signalling to Kyiv" that the transfer of "certain acts of violence" outside Ukraine is unacceptable. Politico reports that the White House is exasperated by Kyiv's constant demand for new weapons.

There is a growing number of opponents of military aid to Ukraine in the US, fuelled by some in the Republican Party, where Donald Trump still has a strong influence.

Recently, Fox News published an interview with Mr Trump in which he says that it is possible to allow Russia to take a piece of Ukraine as part of a peace agreement between the countries. This part of the interview, incidentally, was cut out and published only a few days ago. Mr Trump explains how he would have tried to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine after the Russian invasion last year. He says that he could end the war quickly if he is re-elected US President in 2024.

"I could negotiate. In the worst case scenario, I could have negotiated to take over something, there are certain areas that are frankly Russian-speaking areas, but it would have been possible to negotiate," said the bronzed cream fan and US political showman.

However, the main "crisis point" in US-Ukraine relations is believed to be the end-of-war scenario. Washington doubts whether Ukraine will liberate Crimea and the Donbass and whether Russia will accept the loss of Crimea.

We have said repeatedly that the allies need to agree on an end-of-war scenario. Unfortunately, this has not been done or planned. The naive masses were fed with slogans of 'all for victory', but the proclaimers of victory did not believe in victory themselves.

The problem is not only in the visions of Washington and Kiev. In fact, no head of state has announced any peace plan. What does 'we will fight until victory' mean? Let us fight over the corpses of Ukrainians? Or do we see phantasmagorical images in our visions of Ukrainians attacking Russia and taking Moscow, putting Putin in jail, shooting Medvedev? Or attacking and taking back Crimea, the Donbas, and the upset Russians going home, snarling? This is nonsense.

A slightly more sober-minded person can see that there is no plan. There is no plan because the heads of state are posturing more than they are planning. The disagreements reveal a huge communication gap between allies.

On the other hand, it is unwise to blame Washington alone for the limited supply of weapons. What are the Americans supposed to think and plan when the Ukrainians are emptying a month's arsenal of US-made projectiles in a day and demanding more. Where are the guarantees that the Ukrainians will not waste other weapons at the same rate? The US supplies the weapons and plans the war one way, the Ukrainians fight the war another. Some plan according to NATO standards, others, unfortunately, still according to the half-Russian, half-Cossack school of war.

The only way out of this senseless confusion and the tunnel without light at the end will be when all the politicians come out of their tunnels and bubbles, stop feeding us with election slogans, slogans, posing for the media and selfies, and start simply talking to each other and working.

Protests erupt in Moldova. Pro-Russian forces are reportedly organising a wave of mass protests in the country, with clashes with the police. Yesterday, in the centre of Chisinau, protesters, mostly of retirement age, wore posters and Orthodox icons criticising the current government. The crowd shouted from an improvised stage: "No to dictatorship!"

According to the US, Russia is trying to weaken the Moldovan government, which wants to join the European Union. It also sees indications that Russian figures linked to the government may be training anti-government demonstrators in Moldova.

Meanwhile, the Moldovan police have reported that Russian special services are directly involved in destabilising Moldova. Groups of 10 rioters, each trained in Russia, have taken subversive action to organise unrest in the country. Those recruited were allegedly promised $10 000 each for this activity. Yesterday, seven agents were detained and imprisoned.

Although the US CIA has said that Moldova is not currently under threat from Russia, we report to the Agency that the Kremlin can seize the country without firing a shot. Not everything is a threat that can be seen via satellites. If there are no Russian tanks on the country's borders, it does not mean that the Kremlin is not on the offensive. Westerners need to look deeply into Gerasimov's doctrine of hybrid warfare and the methods and principles of the Drisks.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has instructed Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal to "fully examine" the possibility of renaming Russia as Moscow. A petition on the renaming of Russia to Moscow, published on the Ukrainian President's website, has received the 25 000 votes needed for a formal hearing.

The petitioners believe that Russia's historical name is Moscow, which existed on "many historical maps" in the 16th and 19th centuries. Only later did Peter the Great declare the country the Russian Empire. The petition also proposes replacing the term "Russian" with "Muscovite" and "Russian Federation" with "Moscow Federation".

Putin's spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the Ukrainian President's order "yet another proof of the attempt to turn Ukraine into an 'anti-Russian' country".

What is there to add here?

Operational level

Unchanged. Oleksandr Syrskyi, a spokesman for the Ukrainian army, stated that the defence of the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut in the face of fierce and sustained Russian attacks was necessary to "buy time" for the planned counter-offensive. Russia's progress in the winter operation to capture the ruins of Bakhmut appears to have stalled.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is calling on Germany to speed up the supply of ammunition and to start training Ukrainian pilots to operate Western fighter jets.

The casualties of the Russian war in Ukraine are reported to have come mainly from the regions of the empire rather than from Moscow and St Petersburg. The impact of the heavy losses that Russia continues to suffer varies considerably from region to region, according to a recent UK Ministry of Defence review. The most populous and wealthiest cities of Moscow and St Petersburg were barely affected. The war has not yet come to Russian families in the big cities.

However, the number of casualties in the eastern districts of Russia, as a percentage of the population, is 30 times or more higher than in Moscow. Ethnic minorities have suffered the most, with Kazakhs and Tatars accounting for around 75% of the victims in Astrakhan, for example.

Switzerland is scrapping obsolete Rapier surface-to-air missiles that Ukraine could use to shoot down low-flying targets, reports the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung. The Swiss government forbids countries that acquire Swiss weapons from re-exporting them without authorisation. In February, the Swiss government prevented Spain from transferring Swiss-made anti-aircraft weapons to Ukraine.

Swiss neutrality is more important than ever, said President Alain Berset. "Swiss weapons must not be used in wars", he told the weekly NZZ am Sonntag.

It would be good if all Russians walked around wearing Swiss watches and kept all the money they received from the sale of Kalashnikovs (who knows?) in Swiss banks. Then we could destroy all the missiles in the world and eat beef steak every night with red wine from Chardonne. With a view of the mountains, from the mountains, or in the mountains.

The Kremlin's Konashenkovs are trumpeting that yesterday they shot down two Mi-8 helicopters of the Ukrainian armed forces, intercepted seven HIMARS and Uragan missiles, and in total, since the start of the 'special military operation', they have allegedly destroyed 400 Ukrainian warplanes, 220 helicopters, 3 385 unmanned aerial vehicles, 4 011 air-defence systems, 8 275 tanks, and other armoured equipment.

This is where the delusions about thousands of Western tanks in Ukraine come from! Someone is reading the Muscovites' channels and broadcasting their messages. Before the war, Ukraine had a total of about 1800 tanks, 33 attack and 113 other helicopters.

Be on the alert.

Tactical level

Maskovia does not give up its imperialist intentions and, despite heavy losses, continues to push in the direction of Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk. Last day the Ukrainians repelled 102 attacks in these directions.

The Mashkols continue to use terror tactics, indiscriminately shelling settlements in flagrant violation of international humanitarian law.

Over the past day, the occupiers have launched 3 missile strikes, mainly on civilian infrastructure in the Donetsk region and the city of Slovyansk. The terrorists launched 8 air strikes and 49 shelling attacks with rocket-assisted volley fire systems.

The threat level of missile attacks remains high throughout Ukraine.

Mascolists are active along the Ukrainian border, but no formation of offensive groups has been observed. Engineering reinforcement of defensive positions in the border areas of Belgorod region is ongoing. According to Ukrainian intelligence, this is being done in order to make Ukraine appear to the world as a potential aggressor.

The Enerhodare occupiers are transporting training equipment from the Zaporizhzhya NPP training centre.

The Ukrainian Defence Staff reports that heavy losses of personnel are forcing the enemy to resort to alternative resources: a train carrying prisoners has moved towards the Donetsk region, one of the wagons carrying convicted women.

Last day, Ukrainian military aviation struck an enemy anti-aircraft missile complex and 6 strikes in areas of concentration of occupying personnel and military equipment.

Rocket and artillery units struck a Driski command post, 2 enemy personnel and military equipment centres, 2 ammunition and fuel depots.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed more than 700 more Russian invaders during the previous day. By 13 March 2023, the total combat losses of the enemy amounted to approximately 159,800 (+710 per day) drisks. The occupiers lost 3,474 tanks, 6,774 armoured fighting vehicles, 2,503 artillery systems and 493 multiple rocket launchers.

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In this photo, paratroopers of Ukraine's 80th Airborne Brigade rest in a shelter on the front line near Bakhmut, Ukraine, Friday, March 10, 2023 (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)

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